Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (71%) · FORZE Reload at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

FORZE Reload54¢MASONIC46¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FORZE Reload

Consensus Traders

FORZE Reload 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$152.23

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 53.5¢

-31% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload54%

MASONIC47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FORZE Reload5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,031

Combined PnL-$255.14

MASONIC2 traders

Total Value$227.86

Total Shares749

Combined PnL+$102.9

FORZE Reload — 71%MASONIC — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on FORZE Reload. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFORZE Reload 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFORZE Reload 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedFORZE Reload 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000FORZE Reload 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	FORZE Reloadavg 80¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$214.72	63% 1096-651 (1747)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 72.3¢	$573.27	$563.26	-$10.01	52% 64-60 (124)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 72.3¢	$380.67	$376.52	-$4.15
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 29.4¢	$192.61	$186.75	-$5.86
BI BillBenter2026	FORZE Reloadavg 68.1¢	$371.46	$330.01	-$41.46	22% 136-488 (624)
38 38791873984189CTR	MASONICavg 16.4¢	$116.9	$220.72	+$103.82	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	MASONICavg 24¢	$59.09	$76.94	+$17.84	67% 56-28 (84)
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 24¢	$31.78	$53.06	+$21.28
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 68.6¢	$27.31	$23.88	-$3.43
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 74.2¢	$42.73	$41.15	-$1.58	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
OD Oddstorm<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 78¢	$24.18	$22.01	-$2.17	22% 33-119 (152)
PA Pan9X<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 80.1¢	$83.75	$14.61	+$4.79	48% 662-711 (1373)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	MASONICavg 22¢	$8.06	$7.14	-$0.92	53% 5671-5102 (10773)

vibing123

FORZE Reload

Invested

$1,908.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$214.72

Record

63%

1096-651 (1747)

319113331313111ARB<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$573.27

Value

$563.26

PnL

-$10.01

Record

52%

64-60 (124)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$380.6772.3¢-$4.15

MASONIC$192.6129.4¢-$5.86

BillBenter2026

FORZE Reload

Invested

$371.46

Value

$330.01

PnL

-$41.46

Record

22%

136-488 (624)

38791873984189CTR

MASONIC

Invested

$116.9

Value

$220.72

PnL

+$103.82

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$59.09

Value

$76.94

PnL

+$17.84

Record

67%

56-28 (84)

Both legs:

MASONIC$31.7824¢+$21.28

FORZE Reload$27.3168.6¢-$3.43

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$42.73

Value

$41.15

PnL

-$1.58

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

Oddstorm<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$24.18

Value

$22.01

PnL

-$2.17

Record

22%

33-119 (152)

Pan9X<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$83.75

Value

$14.61

PnL

+$4.79

Record

48%

662-711 (1373)

cigarettesCTR<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$8.06

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$0.92

Record

53%

5671-5102 (10773)

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on FORZE Reload. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFORZE Reload 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFORZE Reload 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedFORZE Reload 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000FORZE Reload 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FORZE Reload wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.