Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold maybe, while the market favors FORZE Reload (51%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs maybe (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold maybe (38%) · maybe at 50¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 9

FORZE Reload51¢maybe49¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

maybe

Consensus Traders

maybe 38%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

-$74.21

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 49.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors FORZE Reload 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload51%

maybe50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

maybe3 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares18,640

Combined PnL+$114.36

FORZE Reload5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares10,155

Combined PnL-$188.56

maybe — 38%FORZE Reload — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR	maybeavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.1K	+$107.86	77% 143-43 (186)
bot-rapin	FORZE Reloadavg 50¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$40	100% 20-0 (20)
Vladooos	FORZE Reloadavg 68¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$227.57	68% 147-69 (216)
alpheclabs2	FORZE Reloadavg 49¢	$98.49	$101.51	+$3.02	47% 1760-1972 (3732)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	maybeavg 32.6¢	$95.96	$100	+$4.04	47% 252-288 (540)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 58.8¢	$29.4	$25.25	-$4.15	52% 6189-5710 (11899)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	maybeavg 28¢	$11.48	$13.94	+$2.46	50% 66185-66688 (132873)
SH shiifoo<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 63.2¢	$3.16	$3.3	+$0.14	48% 5205-5734 (10939)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR

maybe

Invested

$9,769.88

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$107.86

Record

77%

143-43 (186)

bot-rapin

FORZE Reload

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$40

Record

100%

20-0 (20)

Vladooos

FORZE Reload

Invested

$1,290.92

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$227.57

Record

68%

147-69 (216)

alpheclabs2

FORZE Reload

Invested

$98.49

Value

$101.51

PnL

+$3.02

Record

47%

1760-1972 (3732)

glennyorkshireCTR

maybe

Invested

$95.96

Value

$100

PnL

+$4.04

Record

47%

252-288 (540)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$29.4

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$4.15

Record

52%

6189-5710 (11899)

cigarettesCTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$11.48

Value

$13.94

PnL

+$2.46

Record

50%

66185-66688 (132873)

shiifoo<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.14

Record

48%

5205-5734 (10939)

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors FORZE Reload 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that maybe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.