Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FORZE Reload, while the market favors Butterfly (70%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs Butterfly - Map 1 Winner

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (38%) · FORZE Reload at 30¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

FORZE Reload30¢Butterfly70¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FORZE Reload

Consensus Traders

FORZE Reload 38%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$110.68

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 30¢

-39% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Butterfly 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload30%

Butterfly70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FORZE Reload3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,058

Combined PnL+$449.71

Butterfly5 traders

Total Value$319.83

Total Shares959

Combined PnL-$339.03

FORZE Reload — 38%Butterfly — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on FORZE Reload. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrButterfly 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Butterfly 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	FORZE Reloadavg 50.9¢	$974.14	$1.1K	+$154.91	56% 3895-3063 (6958)
KE keykeylolwCTR	FORZE Reloadavg 52¢	$808.58	$901.88	+$93.3	— 1-3 (4)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	FORZE Reloadavg 28.9¢	$105.81	$307.32	+$201.51	37% 527-907 (1434)
NO NotJump	Butterflyavg 50¢	$262.5	$178.5	-$84	54% 427-363 (790)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Butterflyavg 48.8¢	$293.28	$60.07	-$233.21	32% 292-618 (910)
poshposh<$100	Butterflyavg 78.5¢	$52.58	$56.19	+$3.61	47% 508-573 (1081)
LR lryyy<$100	Butterflyavg 62.2¢	$34.66	$24.1	-$10.56	44% 375-478 (853)
SU suntori<$100	Butterflyavg 75.6¢	$17.14	$0.97	-$14.87	47% 1541-1714 (3255)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$974.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$154.91

Record

56%

3895-3063 (6958)

keykeylolwCTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$808.58

Value

$901.88

PnL

+$93.3

Record

—

1-3 (4)

topdogbigboiCTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$105.81

Value

$307.32

PnL

+$201.51

Record

37%

527-907 (1434)

NotJump

Butterfly

Invested

$262.5

Value

$178.5

PnL

-$84

Record

54%

427-363 (790)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Butterfly

Invested

$293.28

Value

$60.07

PnL

-$233.21

Record

32%

292-618 (910)

poshposh<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$52.58

Value

$56.19

PnL

+$3.61

Record

47%

508-573 (1081)

lryyy<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$34.66

Value

$24.1

PnL

-$10.56

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

suntori<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$17.14

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$14.87

Record

47%

1541-1714 (3255)

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 30%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Butterfly 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on FORZE Reload. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrButterfly 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Butterfly 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FORZE Reload wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.