Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Butterfly (71%) · Butterfly at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

FORZE Reload12¢Butterfly88¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Butterfly

Consensus Traders

Butterfly 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$298.13

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 88.5¢

+65% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralButterfly at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Butterfly

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload12%

Butterfly89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Butterfly5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,393

Combined PnL+$299.26

FORZE Reload2 traders

Total Value$13.49

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$1.12

Butterfly — 71%FORZE Reload — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 36¢	$1.1K	$984.55	-$97.85	56% 3895-3063 (6958)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 36¢	$781.73	$683.59	-$98.14
└ Butterfly leg	Butterflyavg 68.4¢	$300.67	$300.96	+$0.29
TO topdogbigboi	Butterflyavg 44.3¢	$412.29	$604.19	+$191.89	37% 527-909 (1436)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Butterflyavg 64¢	$320	$400	+$80	32% 294-619 (913)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 50¢	$262.5	$265.13	+$2.62	54% 428-364 (792)
└ Butterfly leg	Butterflyavg 50¢	$131.25	$170.62	+$39.37
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 50¢	$131.25	$94.5	-$36.75
SU suntori	Butterflyavg 61.8¢	$197.02	$159.88	+$11.25	47% 1547-1731 (3278)
poshposh<$100	Butterflyavg 41¢	$18.89	$29.95	+$11.06	47% 509-574 (1083)
LR lryyy<$100	Butterflyavg 42¢	$9.24	$14.3	+$5.06	44% 375-478 (853)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 39.5¢	$11.85	$10.8	-$1.05	41% 247-360 (607)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 37¢	$2.77	$2.69	-$0.07	53% 6080-5449 (11529)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$1,082.4

Value

$984.55

PnL

-$97.85

Record

56%

3895-3063 (6958)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$781.7336¢-$98.14

Butterfly$300.6768.4¢+$0.29

topdogbigboi

Butterfly

Invested

$412.29

Value

$604.19

PnL

+$191.89

Record

37%

527-909 (1436)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Butterfly

Invested

$320

Value

$400

PnL

+$80

Record

32%

294-619 (913)

NotJumpARB<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$262.5

Value

$265.13

PnL

+$2.62

Record

54%

428-364 (792)

Both legs:

Butterfly$131.2550¢+$39.37

FORZE Reload$131.2550¢-$36.75

suntori

Butterfly

Invested

$197.02

Value

$159.88

PnL

+$11.25

Record

47%

1547-1731 (3278)

poshposh<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$18.89

Value

$29.95

PnL

+$11.06

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

lryyy<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$9.24

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$5.06

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$11.85

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$1.05

Record

41%

247-360 (607)

cigarettesCTR<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$2.77

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

Research grade

NeutralButterfly at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Butterfly

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Butterfly wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.