Counter-Strike: Fortress vs DNK (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold DNK (60%) · DNK at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
DNK
5
DNK 60%
$7.0K
$1.9K
61.6¢ → 100¢
+62% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDNK at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on DNK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SW swiftFoxx | DNKavg 56.2¢ | $2.4K | $4.3K | +$1.9K | 71% 52-21 (73) |
 daddyradar | DNKavg 71.3¢ | $1.7K | $2.4K | +$679.76 | 65% 73-40 (113) |
 poshposh | DNKavg 61.2¢ | $314.05 | $300.75 | -$13.31 | 59% 9693-6689 (16382) |
SK skibidipaCTR | Fortressavg 24.5¢ | $668.27 | $1.36 | -$666.9 | 65% 15-8 (23) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Fortressavg 24¢ | $10 | $0.02 | -$9.98 | 67% 23213-11610 (34823) |
Invested
$2,410.04
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
71%
52-21 (73)
daddyradarInvested
$1,689.85
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$679.76
Record
65%
73-40 (113)
poshposhInvested
$314.05
Value
$300.75
PnL
-$13.31
Record
59%
9693-6689 (16382)
Invested
$668.27
Value
$1.36
PnL
-$666.9
Record
65%
15-8 (23)
Invested
$10
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$9.98
Record
67%
23213-11610 (34823)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.