Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sökerorg, while the market favors FOKUS (100%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Sökerorg - Map 2 Winner
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sökerorg (29%) · Sökerorg at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Sökerorg
7
Sökerorg 29%
$1.7K
$37.37
47.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidSökerorg at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors FOKUS 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 daddyradarCTR | Sökerorgavg 50.8¢ | $769.38 | $757.5 | -$11.88 | 66% 78-41 (119) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | FOKUSavg 70.2¢ | $478.72 | $513.65 | +$34.94 | 53% 2368-2080 (4448) |
46 467j6yj | FOKUSavg 98.5¢ | $266.05 | $256.64 | -$9.42 | 97% 3293-115 (3408) |
TE testBruno2 | FOKUSavg 77.7¢ | $749.41 | $134.16 | +$30.65 | 57% 849-628 (1477) |
 poshposh<$100 | FOKUSavg 58.7¢ | $33.1 | $42.23 | +$9.13 | 59% 9914-6887 (16801) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | FOKUSavg 89¢ | $22.01 | $22.48 | +$0.47 | 52% 9138-8533 (17671) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Sökerorgavg 15.3¢ | $24.4 | $7.88 | -$16.52 | 38% 3185-5189 (8374) |
daddyradarCTRInvested
$769.38
Value
$757.5
PnL
-$11.88
Record
66%
78-41 (119)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$478.72
Value
$513.65
PnL
+$34.94
Record
53%
2368-2080 (4448)
Invested
$266.05
Value
$256.64
PnL
-$9.42
Record
97%
3293-115 (3408)
Invested
$749.41
Value
$134.16
PnL
+$30.65
Record
57%
849-628 (1477)
poshposh<$100Invested
$33.1
Value
$42.23
PnL
+$9.13
Record
59%
9914-6887 (16801)
Invested
$22.01
Value
$22.48
PnL
+$0.47
Record
52%
9138-8533 (17671)
Invested
$24.4
Value
$7.88
PnL
-$16.52
Record
38%
3185-5189 (8374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.