Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Sökerorg (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Playoffs
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold FOKUS (100%) · FOKUS at 81¢ · $773 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
FOKUS
4
FOKUS 100%
$773.12
$22.72
79.3¢ → 81¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralFOKUS at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | FOKUSavg 78.9¢ | $866.96 | $673.5 | +$23.14 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | FOKUSavg 81¢ | $76.13 | $76.13 | +$0 | 38% 377-619 (996) |
AS astapzippo<$100 | FOKUSavg 83¢ | $20.75 | $20.25 | -$0.5 | 56% 2142-1695 (3837) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FOKUSavg 79¢ | $3.16 | $3.24 | +$0.08 | 52% 3994-3636 (7630) |
Invested
$866.96
Value
$673.5
PnL
+$23.14
Record
46%
7925-9338 (17263)
Invested
$76.13
Value
$76.13
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
377-619 (996)
Invested
$20.75
Value
$20.25
PnL
-$0.5
Record
56%
2142-1695 (3837)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.16
Value
$3.24
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
3994-3636 (7630)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.