Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nuclear TigeRES, while the market favors FOKUS (60%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nuclear TigeRES (63%) · Nuclear TigeRES at 41¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 27

FOKUS60¢Nuclear TigeRES40¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nuclear TigeRES

Consensus Traders

Nuclear TigeRES 63%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$380.38

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 40.5¢

-21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNuclear TigeRES at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuclear TigeRES

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors FOKUS 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FOKUS60%

Nuclear TigeRES41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuclear TigeRES5 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares10,671

Combined PnL-$379.63

FOKUS3 traders

Total Value$157.59

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$0.75

Nuclear TigeRES — 63%FOKUS — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Nuclear TigeRESavg 51.5¢	$4.8K	$4.5K	-$379.51	55% 277-228 (505)
itwasawholethingCTR	Nuclear TigeRESavg 48¢	$462.42	$457.6	-$4.82	60% 48-32 (80)
PN pnhct	FOKUSavg 48.3¢	$140.74	$136.17	-$4.57	54% 433-372 (805)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Nuclear TigeRESavg 46¢	$130.87	$135.14	+$4.27	55% 120-99 (219)
TO TommyLeePeeca<$100	FOKUSavg 48.1¢	$14.78	$18.27	+$3.49	54% 1024-865 (1889)
poshposhCTR<$100	Nuclear TigeRESavg 51¢	$5.9	$6.19	+$0.29	60% 9075-5994 (15069)
AS astapzippo<$100	FOKUSavg 47¢	$2.82	$3.15	+$0.33	56% 2100-1638 (3738)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Nuclear TigeRESavg 49¢	$1.47	$1.61	+$0.14	54% 2551-2184 (4735)

lllllllIlllCTR

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$4,848.38

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$379.51

Record

55%

277-228 (505)

itwasawholethingCTR

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$462.42

Value

$457.6

PnL

-$4.82

Record

60%

48-32 (80)

pnhct

FOKUS

Invested

$140.74

Value

$136.17

PnL

-$4.57

Record

54%

433-372 (805)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$130.87

Value

$135.14

PnL

+$4.27

Record

55%

120-99 (219)

TommyLeePeeca<$100

FOKUS

Invested

$14.78

Value

$18.27

PnL

+$3.49

Record

54%

1024-865 (1889)

poshposhCTR<$100

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$5.9

Value

$6.19

PnL

+$0.29

Record

60%

9075-5994 (15069)

astapzippo<$100

FOKUS

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.33

Record

56%

2100-1638 (3738)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

Research grade

NeutralNuclear TigeRES at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nuclear TigeRES

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors FOKUS 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuclear TigeRES wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.