Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FOKUS (83%) · FOKUS at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
FOKUS
6
FOKUS 83%
$2.1K
-$477.6
90¢ → 100¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFOKUS at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
46 467j6yj | FOKUSavg 98.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$15.27 | 97% 3327-116 (3443) |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | BakS eSportsavg 30.2¢ | $1.1K | $503.84 | -$546.24 | 52% 1247-1130 (2377) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | FOKUSavg 73.2¢ | $258.19 | $292.86 | +$34.67 | 54% 2413-2095 (4508) |
0X 0x4f2 | FOKUSavg 74¢ | $152.25 | $175.84 | +$23.59 | 52% 9158-8549 (17707) |
TE testBruno2 | FOKUSavg 89.4¢ | $147.71 | $48.82 | -$5.77 | 58% 875-633 (1508) |
 poshposh<$100 | FOKUSavg 65¢ | $14.23 | $15.1 | +$0.88 | 59% 10191-7178 (17369) |
Invested
$1,069.82
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$15.27
Record
97%
3327-116 (3443)
JohnLKellyJrCTRInvested
$1,050.08
Value
$503.84
PnL
-$546.24
Record
52%
1247-1130 (2377)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$258.19
Value
$292.86
PnL
+$34.67
Record
54%
2413-2095 (4508)
Invested
$152.25
Value
$175.84
PnL
+$23.59
Record
52%
9158-8549 (17707)
Invested
$147.71
Value
$48.82
PnL
-$5.77
Record
58%
875-633 (1508)
poshposh<$100Invested
$14.23
Value
$15.1
PnL
+$0.88
Record
59%
10191-7178 (17369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.