Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Playoffs

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FOKUS (67%) · FOKUS at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

FOKUS89¢BakS eSports11¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FOKUS

Consensus Traders

FOKUS 67%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$269.38

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 88.5¢

+22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFOKUS at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FOKUS

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FOKUS89%

BakS eSports12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FOKUS4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,360

Combined PnL+$361.27

BakS eSports2 traders

Total Value$144.56

Total Shares816

Combined PnL-$91.89

FOKUS — 67%BakS eSports — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA Rayaya	FOKUSavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$330	60% 1176-775 (1951)
OD Oddstorm	FOKUSavg 72.3¢	$162.39	$186.46	+$24.07	39% 418-667 (1085)
LE legitgameCTR	BakS eSportsavg 30¢	$200	$113.29	-$86.71	56% 248-192 (440)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100	FOKUSavg 84.9¢	$93.55	$96.91	+$3.36	54% 2413-2095 (4508)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	BakS eSportsavg 15¢	$36.44	$31.27	-$5.17	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
AS astapzippo<$100	FOKUSavg 71¢	$22.71	$26.55	+$3.84	56% 2150-1702 (3852)

Rayaya

FOKUS

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$330

Record

60%

1176-775 (1951)

Oddstorm

FOKUS

Invested

$162.39

Value

$186.46

PnL

+$24.07

Record

39%

418-667 (1085)

legitgameCTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$200

Value

$113.29

PnL

-$86.71

Record

56%

248-192 (440)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100

FOKUS

Invested

$93.55

Value

$96.91

PnL

+$3.36

Record

54%

2413-2095 (4508)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$36.44

Value

$31.27

PnL

-$5.17

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

astapzippo<$100

FOKUS

Invested

$22.71

Value

$26.55

PnL

+$3.84

Record

56%

2150-1702 (3852)

Research grade

NeutralFOKUS at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FOKUS

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FOKUS wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.