Counter-Strike: fnatic vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (46%) · fnatic at 100¢ · $34K held · ends Oct 29

fnatic>99¢MIBR<1¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.0K

Combined PnL

-$468.01

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 100¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

fnatic100%

MIBR0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

fnatic6 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares23,035

Combined PnL+$77.3

MIBR7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,969

Combined PnL-$545.31

fnatic — 46%MIBR — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	MIBRavg 39.3¢	$11.5K	$10.6K	-$895.43	54% 56041-48162 (104203)
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 60.4¢	$5.0K	$5.9K	+$907.92
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 39.3¢	$6.6K	$4.8K	$-1.8K
II iii252	fnaticavg 68.2¢	$13.4K	$7.9K	+$640.03	57% 1119-861 (1980)
AA aaaa298	fnaticavg 73.3¢	$11.2K	$7.3K	+$53.61	59% 766-543 (1309)
PN pnhct	fnaticavg 60¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$10.5	54% 483-410 (893)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	fnaticavg 71.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$105.3	52% 13661-12483 (26144)
GT gt7238CTR	MIBRavg 20.6¢	$238.59	$856.17	+$617.58	45% 600-734 (1334)
AN anyjezzCTR	MIBRavg 26¢	$175.49	$499.48	+$323.99	49% 530-550 (1080)
latvian.demon	fnaticavg 59¢	$885	$390	-$495	54% 660-564 (1224)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	MIBRavg 53¢	$19.28	$26.92	+$7.64	49% 18827-19233 (38060)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	MIBRavg 49¢	$24.59	$24.34	-$0.25	59% 30223-20929 (51152)
VeryLucky888CTR	MIBRavg 50¢	$102	$6.06	+$7.84	58% 41225-29890 (71115)
LO lonmi2511<$100	fnaticavg 53.8¢	$10.75	$5.2	-$5.55	62% 1102-662 (1764)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	MIBRavg 49.5¢	$1.5K	$1.52	$-1.5K	51% 447-421 (868)
poshposhCTR<$100	MIBRavg 35¢	$3.63	$0.01	-$3.62	59% 9684-6679 (16363)

RN1ARB<$100

MIBR

Invested

$11,528.21

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$895.43

Record

54%

56041-48162 (104203)

Both legs:

fnatic$4,958.4660.4¢+$907.92

MIBR$6,569.7539.3¢$-1.8K

iii252

fnatic

Invested

$13,423.96

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$640.03

Record

57%

1119-861 (1980)

aaaa298

fnatic

Invested

$11,187.94

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$53.61

Record

59%

766-543 (1309)

pnhct

fnatic

Invested

$5,160.05

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

54%

483-410 (893)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

fnatic

Invested

$1,302.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$105.3

Record

52%

13661-12483 (26144)

gt7238CTR

MIBR

Invested

$238.59

Value

$856.17

PnL

+$617.58

Record

45%

600-734 (1334)

anyjezzCTR

MIBR

Invested

$175.49

Value

$499.48

PnL

+$323.99

Record

49%

530-550 (1080)

latvian.demon

fnatic

Invested

$885

Value

$390

PnL

-$495

Record

54%

660-564 (1224)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

MIBR

Invested

$19.28

Value

$26.92

PnL

+$7.64

Record

49%

18827-19233 (38060)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

MIBR

Invested

$24.59

Value

$24.34

PnL

-$0.25

Record

59%

30223-20929 (51152)

VeryLucky888CTR

MIBR

Invested

$102

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$7.84

Record

58%

41225-29890 (71115)

lonmi2511<$100

fnatic

Invested

$10.75

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$5.55

Record

62%

1102-662 (1764)

delacsynzy1CTR

MIBR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.52

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

447-421 (868)

poshposhCTR<$100

MIBR

Invested

$3.63

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.62

Record

59%

9684-6679 (16363)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.