Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold fnatic, while the market favors MIBR (57%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: fnatic vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (30%) · fnatic at 43¢ · $20K held · ends Oct 29

fnatic43¢MIBR57¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 30%

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

$150.7

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 42.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors MIBR 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

fnatic43%

MIBR57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

fnatic3 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares26,891

Combined PnL+$118.79

MIBR7 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares14,792

Combined PnL+$31.91

fnatic — 30%MIBR — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlllCTR	fnaticavg 42¢	$10.6K	$10.8K	+$126.62	54% 291-245 (536)
forsenxd	MIBRavg 58¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$37.71	53% 1048-913 (1961)
VE Vetch	MIBRavg 57.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$5.43	61% 358-233 (591)
VeryLucky888	MIBRavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$10	58% 41209-29876 (71085)
StudyPrediction	MIBRavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10	53% 4564-3974 (8538)
VO vovatoxicCTR	fnaticavg 42¢	$500	$494.05	-$5.95	49% 69-73 (142)
AS astapzippo	MIBRavg 58¢	$174	$175.5	+$1.5	56% 2135-1678 (3813)
relativesignificanceCTR	fnaticavg 42¢	$158.04	$156.16	-$1.88	59% 95-67 (162)
IC ic4cream	MIBRavg 59¢	$122.72	$121.68	-$1.04	59% 2626-1842 (4468)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	MIBRavg 59¢	$97.67	$96.84	-$0.83	49% 18814-19213 (38027)

lllllllIlllCTR

fnatic

Invested

$10,636.18

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$126.62

Record

54%

291-245 (536)

forsenxd

MIBR

Invested

$4,374.8

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$37.71

Record

53%

1048-913 (1961)

Vetch

MIBR

Invested

$1,486.38

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$5.43

Record

61%

358-233 (591)

VeryLucky888

MIBR

Invested

$1,160

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

41209-29876 (71085)

StudyPrediction

MIBR

Invested

$1,139.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

4564-3974 (8538)

vovatoxicCTR

fnatic

Invested

$500

Value

$494.05

PnL

-$5.95

Record

49%

69-73 (142)

astapzippo

MIBR

Invested

$174

Value

$175.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

2135-1678 (3813)

relativesignificanceCTR

fnatic

Invested

$158.04

Value

$156.16

PnL

-$1.88

Record

59%

95-67 (162)

ic4cream

MIBR

Invested

$122.72

Value

$121.68

PnL

-$1.04

Record

59%

2626-1842 (4468)

omnibus-076daa<$100

MIBR

Invested

$97.67

Value

$96.84

PnL

-$0.83

Record

49%

18814-19213 (38027)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors MIBR 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.