Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Eternal Fire, while the market favors fnatic (81%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (75%) · Eternal Fire at 19¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Eternal Fire
4
Eternal Fire 75%
$3.3K
-$908.97
60¢ → 19¢
-68% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidEternal Fire at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors fnatic 81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Satanishippie | fnaticavg 40¢ | $1.3K | $1.8K | +$540.26 | 49% 317-335 (652) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Eternal Fireavg 60¢ | $1.1K | $795.5 | -$314.5 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
 forsenxdCTR | Eternal Fireavg 60¢ | $2.6K | $499.8 | $-1.1K | 53% 1060-928 (1988) |
SP spartachioCTR | Eternal Fireavg 60¢ | $240.96 | $172.69 | -$56.22 | 48% 696-749 (1445) |
SatanishippieInvested
$1,259.74
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$540.26
Record
49%
317-335 (652)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,110
Value
$795.5
PnL
-$314.5
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
forsenxdCTRInvested
$2,630.5
Value
$499.8
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
53%
1060-928 (1988)
Invested
$240.96
Value
$172.69
PnL
-$56.22
Record
48%
696-749 (1445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.