Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (55%) · fnatic at 100¢ · $80K held · ends Oct 30

fnatic>99¢Eternal Fire<1¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$80.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

fnatic100%

Eternal Fire0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

fnatic6 traders

Total Value$64.8K

Total Shares86,438

Combined PnL+$491.7

Eternal Fire5 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares30,297

Combined PnL$-2.9K

fnatic — 55%Eternal Fire — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
46 467j6yj	fnaticavg 98.6¢	$26.9K	$26.8K	-$38.4	97% 3296-115 (3411)
LL lllllllIlll	fnaticavg 51.9¢	$23.2K	$23.5K	+$283.56	54% 299-250 (549)
II iii252	fnaticavg 78.3¢	$8.7K	$7.5K	$-1.3K	57% 1127-867 (1994)
RN1CTR	Eternal Fireavg 32.9¢	$9.2K	$6.2K	$-3.0K	54% 56317-48476 (104793)
PN pnhct	fnaticavg 72.4¢	$5.9K	$5.0K	-$837.84	54% 497-426 (923)
SP spartachioCTR	Eternal Fireavg 48¢	$4.6K	$4.8K	+$238.11	48% 696-749 (1445)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	Eternal Fireavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$127.55	51% 343-335 (678)
AA aaaa298	fnaticavg 74.8¢	$7.4K	$1.9K	+$2.4K	59% 774-548 (1322)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 38.6¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$676	53% 3165-2785 (5950)
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 81.7¢	$909.49	$996.18	+$86.69
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 38.6¢	$1.0K	$285.47	-$762.7
forsenxdARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 47¢	$2.9K	$866.95	$-2.0K	53% 1058-925 (1983)
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 47¢	$2.6K	$573.37	$-2.0K
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 90.1¢	$295.44	$293.58	-$1.86
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 48¢	$95.52	$96.52	+$1	38% 3197-5208 (8405)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 35.9¢	$23.82	$14.27	-$9.55	62% 1125-678 (1803)
VeryLucky888<$100	fnaticavg 51¢	$3.62	$3.8	+$0.18	58% 41497-30120 (71617)

467j6yj

fnatic

Invested

$26,872.38

Value

$26.8K

PnL

-$38.4

Record

97%

3296-115 (3411)

lllllllIlll

fnatic

Invested

$23,237.7

Value

$23.5K

PnL

+$283.56

Record

54%

299-250 (549)

iii252

fnatic

Invested

$8,734.87

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

57%

1127-867 (1994)

RN1CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$9,240.16

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

54%

56317-48476 (104793)

pnhct

fnatic

Invested

$5,886.71

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$837.84

Record

54%

497-426 (923)

spartachioCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$4,575.26

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$238.11

Record

48%

696-749 (1445)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$127.55

Record

51%

343-335 (678)

aaaa298

fnatic

Invested

$7,439.28

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

59%

774-548 (1322)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,957.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$676

Record

53%

3165-2785 (5950)

Both legs:

fnatic$909.4981.7¢+$86.69

Eternal Fire$1,048.1738.6¢-$762.7

forsenxdARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$2,861.95

Value

$866.95

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

53%

1058-925 (1983)

Both legs:

Eternal Fire$2,566.5147¢$-2.0K

fnatic$295.4490.1¢-$1.86

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$95.52

Value

$96.52

PnL

+$1

Record

38%

3197-5208 (8405)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$23.82

Value

$14.27

PnL

-$9.55

Record

62%

1125-678 (1803)

VeryLucky888<$100

fnatic

Invested

$3.62

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

41497-30120 (71617)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.