Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Eternal Fire (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs

9 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (39%) · fnatic at 91¢ · $39K held · ends Oct 30

fnatic91¢Eternal Fire9¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 39%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.5K

Combined PnL

-$57.93

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 90.5¢

+49% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

9 of 23 top traders (39%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

fnatic91%

Eternal Fire10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

fnatic9 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares41,541

Combined PnL+$406.13

Eternal Fire14 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares33,247

Combined PnL-$464.06

fnatic — 39%Eternal Fire — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	fnaticavg 56¢	$11.5K	$11.8K	+$308.91	54% 299-250 (549)
KateBollinger	fnaticavg 57¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$36.34	68% 1739-804 (2543)
HO HongweiqianCTR	Eternal Fireavg 44¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$136.36	48% 230-245 (475)
II iii252	fnaticavg 85¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$31.13	57% 1127-867 (1994)
Satanishippie	fnaticavg 57.3¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$10.36	48% 313-335 (648)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	Eternal Fireavg 43¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$29.42	43% 120-161 (281)
PN pnhct	fnaticavg 78.1¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$6.95	54% 497-426 (923)
RN1	fnaticavg 81¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$62.2	54% 56317-48476 (104793)
VE VetchCTR	Eternal Fireavg 42.2¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$299.64	61% 360-235 (595)
IV Ivan948CTR	Eternal Fireavg 15¢	$954.5	$986.32	+$31.82	43% 64-85 (149)
SP spartachioCTR	Eternal Fireavg 43¢	$990.71	$979.19	-$11.52	48% 696-749 (1445)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	fnaticavg 71.6¢	$894.92	$891.13	-$3.79	52% 13724-12524 (26248)
hasobidaleCTR	Eternal Fireavg 43¢	$817	$807.5	-$9.5	66% 220-111 (331)
CR Crazyboy77	fnaticavg 56¢	$671.98	$689.98	+$18	52% 180-168 (348)
forsenxdCTR	Eternal Fireavg 42¢	$569.11	$575.89	+$6.78	53% 1058-925 (1983)
HU humbleboyCTR	Eternal Fireavg 42¢	$519.86	$526.05	+$6.19	54% 511-427 (938)
DumplingBMFCTR	Eternal Fireavg 43¢	$341.4	$337.43	-$3.97	68% 1813-844 (2657)
bernardi22	fnaticavg 57.9¢	$262.83	$261.11	-$1.72	56% 1267-984 (2251)
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 40.1¢	$622.96	$214.92	-$408.05	59% 774-548 (1322)
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 40.1¢	$556.3	$145.52	-$410.77
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 86¢	$66.66	$69.39	+$2.73
VeryLucky888CTR	Eternal Fireavg 43¢	$172	$170	-$2	58% 41497-30120 (71617)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 31¢	$96.83	$89.02	-$7.81	49% 18987-19398 (38385)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 43¢	$39.19	$38.73	-$0.46	38% 3197-5208 (8405)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 23.4¢	$11.22	$8.4	-$2.82	62% 1125-678 (1803)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 36¢	$10.41	$5.06	-$5.35	52% 3999-3641 (7640)

lllllllIlll

fnatic

Invested

$11,532.74

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$308.91

Record

54%

299-250 (549)

KateBollinger

fnatic

Invested

$4,143.12

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$36.34

Record

68%

1739-804 (2543)

HongweiqianCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$136.36

Record

48%

230-245 (475)

iii252

fnatic

Invested

$3,022.95

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$31.13

Record

57%

1127-867 (1994)

Satanishippie

fnatic

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$10.36

Record

48%

313-335 (648)

JohnnyWinsCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$2,529.74

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$29.42

Record

43%

120-161 (281)

pnhct

fnatic

Invested

$1,699.12

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$6.95

Record

54%

497-426 (923)

RN1

fnatic

Invested

$1,116.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$62.2

Record

54%

56317-48476 (104793)

VetchCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,451.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$299.64

Record

61%

360-235 (595)

Ivan948CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$954.5

Value

$986.32

PnL

+$31.82

Record

43%

64-85 (149)

spartachioCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$990.71

Value

$979.19

PnL

-$11.52

Record

48%

696-749 (1445)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

fnatic

Invested

$894.92

Value

$891.13

PnL

-$3.79

Record

52%

13724-12524 (26248)

hasobidaleCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$817

Value

$807.5

PnL

-$9.5

Record

66%

220-111 (331)

Crazyboy77

fnatic

Invested

$671.98

Value

$689.98

PnL

+$18

Record

52%

180-168 (348)

forsenxdCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$569.11

Value

$575.89

PnL

+$6.78

Record

53%

1058-925 (1983)

humbleboyCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$519.86

Value

$526.05

PnL

+$6.19

Record

54%

511-427 (938)

DumplingBMFCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$341.4

Value

$337.43

PnL

-$3.97

Record

68%

1813-844 (2657)

bernardi22

fnatic

Invested

$262.83

Value

$261.11

PnL

-$1.72

Record

56%

1267-984 (2251)

aaaa298ARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$622.96

Value

$214.92

PnL

-$408.05

Record

59%

774-548 (1322)

Both legs:

Eternal Fire$556.340.1¢-$410.77

fnatic$66.6686¢+$2.73

VeryLucky888CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$172

Value

$170

PnL

-$2

Record

58%

41497-30120 (71617)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$96.83

Value

$89.02

PnL

-$7.81

Record

49%

18987-19398 (38385)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$39.19

Value

$38.73

PnL

-$0.46

Record

38%

3197-5208 (8405)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$11.22

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$2.82

Record

62%

1125-678 (1803)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$10.41

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$5.35

Record

52%

3999-3641 (7640)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

9 of 23 top traders (39%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.