Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BIG - Map 2 Winner

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (64%) · fnatic at 100¢ · $183K held · ends Oct 28

fnatic>99¢BIG<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 64%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$183.4K

Combined PnL

$4.9K

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 100¢

+67% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

fnatic100%

BIG0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BIG5 traders

Total Value$56.6K

Total Shares96,294

Combined PnL+$5.5K

fnatic9 traders

Total Value$61.9K

Total Shares104,132

Combined PnL-$640.35

BIG — 36%fnatic — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlllCTR	BIGavg 53.3¢	$41.6K	$46.4K	+$4.8K	55% 289-236 (525)
RN1ARB<$100	BIGavg 56.4¢	$38.2K	$36.6K	$-1.5K	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 46.7¢	$16.4K	$20.0K	+$3.6K
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 56.4¢	$21.8K	$16.6K	$-5.2K
OM omnibus-076daa	fnaticavg 46.2¢	$15.2K	$20.8K	+$5.7K	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
CoinTrick	fnaticavg 99.9¢	$20.5K	$20.5K	+$10.25	98% 3112-75 (3187)
PN pnhctARB<$100	BIGavg 54.9¢	$17.4K	$16.7K	-$703.89	54% 457-395 (852)
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 48.7¢	$7.9K	$9.3K	+$1.3K
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 54.9¢	$9.4K	$7.4K	$-2.0K
FA fantasy7788	fnaticavg 52¢	$19.0K	$14.8K	$-4.2K	42% 74-101 (175)
II iii252ARB<$100	BIGavg 58.9¢	$10.6K	$7.9K	$-2.7K	56% 1099-848 (1947)
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 58.9¢	$8.4K	$6.1K	$-2.3K
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 69.4¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$396.9
AA aaaa298CTR	BIGavg 47¢	$5.1K	$4.7K	-$367.11	58% 751-534 (1285)
forsenxdCTR	BIGavg 44.6¢	$3.6K	$4.6K	+$1.1K	54% 1043-906 (1949)
JohnLKellyJr	fnaticavg 62.2¢	$3.7K	$3.3K	-$336.19	53% 1204-1080 (2284)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	BIGavg 66¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$139.09	52% 13567-12407 (25974)
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 35.3¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$686.57
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 66¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$547.48
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048	fnaticavg 38.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$40.34	68% 241-112 (353)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	fnaticavg 57.7¢	$965.74	$908.91	-$56.83	58% 18407-13505 (31912)
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 57.7¢	$580.94	$638.81	+$57.87
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 52¢	$384.8	$270.1	-$114.7
PI PIPIZINCTR	BIGavg 54¢	$594	$610.5	+$16.5	51% 398-376 (774)
noreasapa	fnaticavg 98.5¢	$591.65	$600.66	+$9.01	92% 3552-327 (3879)
LU luckycat888888	fnaticavg 51¢	$2.0K	$300	$-1.7K	48% 26-28 (54)
poshposhCTR	BIGavg 53.9¢	$258.58	$208.86	-$49.72	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
TO TommyLeePeeca<$100	fnaticavg 63.3¢	$10.85	$17.13	+$6.28	54% 1056-900 (1956)
DumplingBMF<$100	fnaticavg 41¢	$10.25	$10.13	-$0.13	68% 1801-840 (2641)

lllllllIlllCTR

BIG

Invested

$41,570.9

Value

$46.4K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

55%

289-236 (525)

RN1ARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$38,185.65

Value

$36.6K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

Both legs:

fnatic$16,385.946.7¢+$3.6K

BIG$21,799.7556.4¢$-5.2K

omnibus-076daa

fnatic

Invested

$15,179.51

Value

$20.8K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

CoinTrick

fnatic

Invested

$20,489.37

Value

$20.5K

PnL

+$10.25

Record

98%

3112-75 (3187)

pnhctARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$17,363.56

Value

$16.7K

PnL

-$703.89

Record

54%

457-395 (852)

Both legs:

fnatic$7,935.7148.7¢+$1.3K

BIG$9,427.8554.9¢$-2.0K

fantasy7788

fnatic

Invested

$19,000

Value

$14.8K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

42%

74-101 (175)

iii252ARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$10,608.28

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

56%

1099-848 (1947)

Both legs:

BIG$8,392.7358.9¢$-2.3K

fnatic$2,215.5669.4¢-$396.9

aaaa298CTR

BIG

Invested

$5,097.58

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$367.11

Record

58%

751-534 (1285)

forsenxdCTR

BIG

Invested

$3,551.6

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

1043-906 (1949)

JohnLKellyJr

fnatic

Invested

$3,670.77

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$336.19

Record

53%

1204-1080 (2284)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$2,683.48

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$139.09

Record

52%

13567-12407 (25974)

Both legs:

fnatic$1,113.5135.3¢+$686.57

BIG$1,569.9766¢-$547.48

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048

fnatic

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$40.34

Record

68%

241-112 (353)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

fnatic

Invested

$965.74

Value

$908.91

PnL

-$56.83

Record

58%

18407-13505 (31912)

Both legs:

fnatic$580.9457.7¢+$57.87

BIG$384.852¢-$114.7

PIPIZINCTR

BIG

Invested

$594

Value

$610.5

PnL

+$16.5

Record

51%

398-376 (774)

noreasapa

fnatic

Invested

$591.65

Value

$600.66

PnL

+$9.01

Record

92%

3552-327 (3879)

luckycat888888

fnatic

Invested

$2,040

Value

$300

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

48%

26-28 (54)

poshposhCTR

BIG

Invested

$258.58

Value

$208.86

PnL

-$49.72

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

TommyLeePeeca<$100

fnatic

Invested

$10.85

Value

$17.13

PnL

+$6.28

Record

54%

1056-900 (1956)

DumplingBMF<$100

fnatic

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

68%

1801-840 (2641)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.