Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BIG - Map 1 Winner

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (67%) · fnatic at 100¢ · $26K held · ends Oct 28

fnatic>99¢BIG<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.0K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 100¢

+27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

fnatic100%

BIG0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

fnatic4 traders

Total Value$24.3K

Total Shares24,750

Combined PnL+$1.4K

BIG2 traders

Total Value$552.67

Total Shares1,053

Combined PnL+$56.98

fnatic — 67%BIG — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	fnaticavg 78.4¢	$7.2K	$8.5K	+$1.3K	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
AA aaaa298	fnaticavg 79¢	$8.6K	$7.9K	+$363.75	58% 750-533 (1283)
PN pnhct	fnaticavg 79.1¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$161.54	54% 456-393 (849)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	fnaticavg 79.2¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$91.34	52% 13563-12405 (25968)
II iii252ARB<$100	BIGavg 12.6¢	$1.1K	$805.25	-$307.9	56% 1098-847 (1945)
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 92.8¢	$466.09	$469.21	+$3.12
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 12.6¢	$647.06	$336.04	-$311.02
VeryLucky888CTR	BIGavg 47.7¢	$494.37	$463.43	+$47.63	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	BIGavg 34.4¢	$425.73	$300.72	-$125.01	58% 18402-13504 (31906)
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 84.6¢	$198.82	$198.58	-$0.25
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 34.4¢	$226.91	$102.15	-$124.77
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	BIGavg 47¢	$79.89	$89.24	+$9.35	47% 2407-2692 (5099)

RN1

fnatic

Invested

$7,198.55

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

aaaa298

fnatic

Invested

$8,598.1

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$363.75

Record

58%

750-533 (1283)

pnhct

fnatic

Invested

$6,321.98

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$161.54

Record

54%

456-393 (849)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

fnatic

Invested

$1,758.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$91.34

Record

52%

13563-12405 (25968)

iii252ARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$1,113.15

Value

$805.25

PnL

-$307.9

Record

56%

1098-847 (1945)

Both legs:

fnatic$466.0992.8¢+$3.12

BIG$647.0612.6¢-$311.02

VeryLucky888CTR

BIG

Invested

$494.37

Value

$463.43

PnL

+$47.63

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$425.73

Value

$300.72

PnL

-$125.01

Record

58%

18402-13504 (31906)

Both legs:

fnatic$198.8284.6¢-$0.25

BIG$226.9134.4¢-$124.77

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

BIG

Invested

$79.89

Value

$89.24

PnL

+$9.35

Record

47%

2407-2692 (5099)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.