Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BIG (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold BIG (71%) · BIG at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
BIG
7
BIG 71%
$8.4K
$55.23
55¢ → 56.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBIG at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlll | BIGavg 55¢ | $5.8K | $5.9K | +$52.82 | 55% 286-235 (521) |
 KateBollinger | BIGavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$10.18 | 69% 1724-784 (2508) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | fnaticavg 43.9¢ | $957.34 | $948.24 | -$9.1 | 53% 4536-3953 (8489) |
HU humbleboy | BIGavg 50¢ | $222.25 | $237.81 | +$15.56 | 54% 500-422 (922) |
RA Rayaya | BIGavg 53¢ | $117.07 | $118.17 | +$1.1 | 60% 1160-759 (1919) |
VI vibing123<$100 | BIGavg 56¢ | $77.64 | $78.33 | +$0.69 | 52% 1538-1422 (2960) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | fnaticavg 43.7¢ | $66.83 | $71.16 | +$4.33 | 60% 9276-6223 (15499) |
Invested
$5,810.73
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$52.82
Record
55%
286-235 (521)
KateBollingerInvested
$1,140.4
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$10.18
Record
69%
1724-784 (2508)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$957.34
Value
$948.24
PnL
-$9.1
Record
53%
4536-3953 (8489)
Invested
$222.25
Value
$237.81
PnL
+$15.56
Record
54%
500-422 (922)
Invested
$117.07
Value
$118.17
PnL
+$1.1
Record
60%
1160-759 (1919)
Invested
$77.64
Value
$78.33
PnL
+$0.69
Record
52%
1538-1422 (2960)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$66.83
Value
$71.16
PnL
+$4.33
Record
60%
9276-6223 (15499)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.