Counter-Strike: FaZe vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Tesla Cup Playoffs
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FaZe (71%) · FaZe at 60¢ · $53K held · ends Oct 29
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Neutral
FaZe
7
FaZe 71%
$52.7K
$913.21
59.2¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFaZe at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI Wiretransferxyz | FaZeavg 59¢ | $26.6K | $27.7K | +$1.1K | 53% 750-655 (1405) |
LL lllllllIlllCTR | GamerLegionavg 41¢ | $21.5K | $21.3K | -$260.92 | 54% 291-245 (536) |
RA Rayaya | FaZeavg 61¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$20 | 60% 1164-765 (1929) |
 DumplingBMF | FaZeavg 60¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$30 | 68% 1807-842 (2649) |
MA manoamano<$100 | FaZeavg 60¢ | $49.09 | $48.68 | -$0.41 | 51% 453-439 (892) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | GamerLegionavg 39¢ | $38.7 | $38.2 | -$0.5 | 49% 18770-19171 (37941) |
BA Babooou<$100 | FaZeavg 59¢ | $4.32 | $4.35 | +$0.04 | 52% 210-191 (401) |
Invested
$26,550
Value
$27.7K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
53%
750-655 (1405)
Invested
$21,524.83
Value
$21.3K
PnL
-$260.92
Record
54%
291-245 (536)
Invested
$2,439.97
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$20
Record
60%
1164-765 (1929)
DumplingBMFInvested
$1,200
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$30
Record
68%
1807-842 (2649)
Invested
$49.09
Value
$48.68
PnL
-$0.41
Record
51%
453-439 (892)
Invested
$38.7
Value
$38.2
PnL
-$0.5
Record
49%
18770-19171 (37941)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.35
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
210-191 (401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.