Counter-Strike: FaZe vs fnatic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold FaZe (50%) · FaZe at 54¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

FaZe54¢fnatic46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FaZe

Consensus Traders

FaZe 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$78.22

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFaZe at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FaZe

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FaZe54%

fnatic47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FaZe4 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares9,938

Combined PnL-$100.31

fnatic4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,211

Combined PnL+$22.08

FaZe — 50%fnatic — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on FaZe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFaZe 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000FaZe 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL BlessedKaladin	FaZeavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$30	14% 8-51 (59)
BananaFarmer	FaZeavg 54.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$45	41% 15-22 (37)
Stickman22	FaZeavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$30	46% 13-15 (28)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	fnaticavg 45.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$17.06	55% 174-142 (316)
0X 0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258	FaZeavg 53¢	$497.17	$501.86	+$4.69	— 10-8 (18)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	fnaticavg 45.5¢	$250.5	$253.23	+$2.73	35% 35-65 (100)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	FaZeavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	65% 142-77 (219)
└ FaZe leg	FaZeavg 50¢	$100	$106	+$6
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 50¢	$100	$92	-$8
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	fnaticavg 47¢	$77.08	$76.26	-$0.82	68% 2670-1256 (3926)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	fnaticavg 43¢	$44.73	$47.85	+$3.12	62% 1168-720 (1888)

BlessedKaladin

FaZe

Invested

$1,620

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$30

Record

14%

8-51 (59)

BananaFarmer

FaZe

Invested

$1,634.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$45

Record

41%

15-22 (37)

Stickman22

FaZe

Invested

$1,619.94

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$30

Record

46%

13-15 (28)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

fnatic

Invested

$1,543.3

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$17.06

Record

55%

174-142 (316)

0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258

FaZe

Invested

$497.17

Value

$501.86

PnL

+$4.69

Record

—

10-8 (18)

MrConsistencyCTR

fnatic

Invested

$250.5

Value

$253.23

PnL

+$2.73

Record

35%

35-65 (100)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

FaZe

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

65%

142-77 (219)

Both legs:

Invested

$77.08

Value

$76.26

PnL

-$0.82

Record

68%

2670-1256 (3926)

vibing123CTR<$100

fnatic

Invested

$44.73

Value

$47.85

PnL

+$3.12

Record

62%

1168-720 (1888)

Research grade

NeutralFaZe at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

FaZe

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on FaZe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFaZe 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000FaZe 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FaZe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.