Map Handicap: FAL.F (-1.5) vs Invicta (+1.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons Force (67%) · Falcons Force at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
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Neutral
Falcons Force
3
Falcons Force 67%
$2.2K
-$326.11
60.8¢ → 54¢
-11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFalcons Force at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 daddyradar | Falcons Forceavg 54.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$7.5 | 66% 78-41 (119) |
SW swiftFoxxCTR | Invictaavg 46.9¢ | $452.12 | $443.36 | -$109.96 | 71% 53-22 (75) |
46 467j6yj | Falcons Forceavg 97.4¢ | $467.98 | $259.33 | -$208.65 | 97% 3293-115 (3408) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.