Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs Invicta - Map 1 Winner
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons Force (75%) · Falcons Force at 96¢ · $650 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Falcons Force
4
Falcons Force 75%
$650.42
-$7.95
75.4¢ → 96¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFalcons Force at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Falcons Forceavg 74.4¢ | $494.18 | $466.48 | -$27.69 | 53% 2368-2080 (4448) |
TE testBruno2 | Falcons Forceavg 84.5¢ | $125.33 | $129.22 | +$3.89 | 57% 849-628 (1477) |
 poshposh<$100 | Falcons Forceavg 62.4¢ | $35.2 | $54.12 | +$18.92 | 59% 9914-6887 (16801) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Invictaavg 24.3¢ | $3.67 | $0.6 | -$3.06 | 38% 3185-5189 (8374) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$494.18
Value
$466.48
PnL
-$27.69
Record
53%
2368-2080 (4448)
Invested
$125.33
Value
$129.22
PnL
+$3.89
Record
57%
849-628 (1477)
poshposh<$100Invested
$35.2
Value
$54.12
PnL
+$18.92
Record
59%
9914-6887 (16801)
Invested
$3.67
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$3.06
Record
38%
3185-5189 (8374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.