Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs Invicta (BO3) - European Pro League Series 10 Closed Qualifier Group D
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons Force (67%) · Falcons Force at 100¢ · $751 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Falcons Force
6
Falcons Force 67%
$750.89
-$132.91
75.2¢ → 100¢
+33% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralFalcons Force at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Falcons Force. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Falcons Forceavg 77.8¢ | $581.52 | $565.02 | -$16.5 | 53% 2368-2080 (4448) |
38 38791873984189 | Falcons Forceavg 65.6¢ | $162.54 | $157.33 | -$5.21 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Invictaavg 22.6¢ | $30.96 | $10.94 | -$20.02 | 59% 9914-6887 (16801) |
46 467j6yj<$100 | Falcons Forceavg 97.7¢ | $11.58 | $10.91 | -$0.67 | 97% 3293-115 (3408) |
 1am1b<$100 | Falcons Forceavg 68¢ | $7.35 | $6.51 | +$1.51 | 55% 189-153 (342) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Invictaavg 25.6¢ | $92.2 | $0.18 | -$92.02 | 38% 3185-5189 (8374) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$581.52
Value
$565.02
PnL
-$16.5
Record
53%
2368-2080 (4448)
Invested
$162.54
Value
$157.33
PnL
-$5.21
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$30.96
Value
$10.94
PnL
-$20.02
Record
59%
9914-6887 (16801)
Invested
$11.58
Value
$10.91
PnL
-$0.67
Record
97%
3293-115 (3408)
1am1b<$100Invested
$7.35
Value
$6.51
PnL
+$1.51
Record
55%
189-153 (342)
Invested
$92.2
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$92.02
Record
38%
3185-5189 (8374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.