Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold eternal premium, while the market favors maybe (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: eternal premium vs maybe - Map 2 Winner
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold eternal premium (60%) · eternal premium at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
eternal premium
5
eternal premium 60%
$1.7K
-$868.17
39.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Avoideternal premium at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors maybe 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on eternal premium. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | maybeavg 66.6¢ | $760.79 | $742.42 | -$18.36 | 54% 2454-2111 (4565) |
0X 0x4f2 | maybeavg 60.2¢ | $409.55 | $677.51 | +$267.96 | 52% 9184-8561 (17745) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | eternal premiumavg 34.1¢ | $338.49 | $216.5 | -$121.98 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
 poshposhCTR | eternal premiumavg 32.4¢ | $147.52 | $110.9 | -$36.62 | 58% 10646-7629 (18275) |
 daddyradarCTR | eternal premiumavg 42.2¢ | $960.32 | $1.14 | -$959.17 | 66% 89-45 (134) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$760.79
Value
$742.42
PnL
-$18.36
Record
54%
2454-2111 (4565)
Invested
$409.55
Value
$677.51
PnL
+$267.96
Record
52%
9184-8561 (17745)
Invested
$338.49
Value
$216.5
PnL
-$121.98
Record
48%
8937-9552 (18489)
poshposhCTRInvested
$147.52
Value
$110.9
PnL
-$36.62
Record
58%
10646-7629 (18275)
daddyradarCTRInvested
$960.32
Value
$1.14
PnL
-$959.17
Record
66%
89-45 (134)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.