Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold eternal premium, while the market favors maybe (100%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: eternal premium vs maybe - Map 1 Winner
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold eternal premium (33%) · eternal premium at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
eternal premium
6
eternal premium 33%
$2.6K
$651.64
60¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Avoideternal premium at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors maybe 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR | eternal premiumavg 60.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$19.33 | 54% 2454-2111 (4565) |
TO topdogbigboi | maybeavg 30.3¢ | $279.84 | $912.02 | +$632.18 | 48% 8915-9527 (18442) |
 poshposh | maybeavg 26.9¢ | $105.85 | $271.64 | +$165.79 | 58% 10631-7605 (18236) |
SH shiifoo | maybeavg 64.6¢ | $98.67 | $145.95 | +$50.28 | 59% 3425-2333 (5758) |
TE testBruno2 | maybeavg 46.3¢ | $632.06 | $110.45 | +$96.59 | 58% 896-646 (1542) |
0X 0x4f2CTR | eternal premiumavg 58.5¢ | $276.23 | $2.36 | -$273.87 | 52% 9184-8561 (17745) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTRInvested
$1,201.61
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$19.33
Record
54%
2454-2111 (4565)
Invested
$279.84
Value
$912.02
PnL
+$632.18
Record
48%
8915-9527 (18442)
poshposhInvested
$105.85
Value
$271.64
PnL
+$165.79
Record
58%
10631-7605 (18236)
Invested
$98.67
Value
$145.95
PnL
+$50.28
Record
59%
3425-2333 (5758)
Invested
$632.06
Value
$110.45
PnL
+$96.59
Record
58%
896-646 (1542)
Invested
$276.23
Value
$2.36
PnL
-$273.87
Record
52%
9184-8561 (17745)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.