Counter-Strike: eternal premium vs maybe (BO3) - European Pro League Series 10 Closed Qualifier Group A
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold maybe (80%) · maybe at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
maybe
5
maybe 80%
$1.7K
$50.75
80.3¢ → 100¢
+24% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Neutralmaybe at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on maybe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | maybeavg 73.1¢ | $668.66 | $642.83 | -$25.83 | 54% 2454-2111 (4565) |
AM ameisgoat11 | maybeavg 85.9¢ | $558.53 | $627.46 | +$88.93 | 52% 7493-6786 (14279) |
 poshposh | maybeavg 81.7¢ | $253.42 | $285.11 | +$31.69 | 58% 10646-7629 (18275) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | maybeavg 87.7¢ | $90.27 | $96.8 | +$12.66 | 52% 9184-8561 (17745) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | eternal premiumavg 14.8¢ | $56.9 | $0.19 | -$56.7 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$668.66
Value
$642.83
PnL
-$25.83
Record
54%
2454-2111 (4565)
Invested
$558.53
Value
$627.46
PnL
+$88.93
Record
52%
7493-6786 (14279)
poshposhInvested
$253.42
Value
$285.11
PnL
+$31.69
Record
58%
10646-7629 (18275)
Invested
$90.27
Value
$96.8
PnL
+$12.66
Record
52%
9184-8561 (17745)
Invested
$56.9
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$56.7
Record
48%
8937-9552 (18489)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.