Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Envy, while the market favors GamerLegion (100%). 5 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Envy vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Envy (33%) · Envy at 0.1¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 28

Envy<1¢GamerLegion>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Envy

Consensus Traders

Envy 33%

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$-8.3K

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidEnvy at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Envy

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors GamerLegion 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Envy0%

GamerLegion100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Envy5 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares25,833

Combined PnL$-11.0K

GamerLegion10 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares12,035

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Envy — 33%GamerLegion — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dicekingCTR	Envyavg 55¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$45	58% 313-230 (543)
BI BillBenter2026	GamerLegionavg 36.3¢	$995.62	$2.0K	+$990.43	58% 18304-13452 (31756)
poshposh	GamerLegionavg 53.2¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$599.73	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
PA panpidaras1	GamerLegionavg 45.5¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$591.11	53% 172-153 (325)
latvian.demonCTR	Envyavg 51.8¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$63.07	54% 619-530 (1149)
DE delacsynzy1	GamerLegionavg 51.7¢	$1.0K	$890.04	-$109.96	51% 427-413 (840)
VeryLucky888	GamerLegionavg 38.6¢	$282.72	$699.65	+$365.75	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
JU justaluckydude	GamerLegionavg 35¢	$445.6	$585.65	+$140.05	54% 10408-9035 (19443)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Envyavg 57.6¢	$602.4	$565.16	-$37.24	55% 282-228 (510)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	GamerLegionavg 36.7¢	$330	$414	+$84	47% 2368-2640 (5008)
AN anyjezz	GamerLegionavg 47¢	$211.91	$207.4	-$4.51	50% 521-529 (1050)
CC ccllar	GamerLegionavg 36¢	$108	$138	+$30	46% 394-465 (859)
HRTrading<$100	GamerLegionavg 34¢	$35.91	$48.58	+$12.67	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Envyavg 63.5¢	$11.0K	$8.69	$-11.0K	53% 1187-1063 (2250)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Envyavg 66¢	$6.6	$5.4	-$1.2	50% 7576-7601 (15177)

dicekingCTR

Envy

Invested

$2,474.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$45

Record

58%

313-230 (543)

BillBenter2026

GamerLegion

Invested

$995.62

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$990.43

Record

58%

18304-13452 (31756)

poshposh

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,073.2

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$599.73

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

panpidaras1

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,032.21

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$591.11

Record

53%

172-153 (325)

latvian.demonCTR

Envy

Invested

$1,502.92

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$63.07

Record

54%

619-530 (1149)

delacsynzy1

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,000

Value

$890.04

PnL

-$109.96

Record

51%

427-413 (840)

VeryLucky888

GamerLegion

Invested

$282.72

Value

$699.65

PnL

+$365.75

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

justaluckydude

GamerLegion

Invested

$445.6

Value

$585.65

PnL

+$140.05

Record

54%

10408-9035 (19443)

lllllllIlllCTR

Envy

Invested

$602.4

Value

$565.16

PnL

-$37.24

Record

55%

282-228 (510)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

GamerLegion

Invested

$330

Value

$414

PnL

+$84

Record

47%

2368-2640 (5008)

anyjezz

GamerLegion

Invested

$211.91

Value

$207.4

PnL

-$4.51

Record

50%

521-529 (1050)

ccllar

GamerLegion

Invested

$108

Value

$138

PnL

+$30

Record

46%

394-465 (859)

HRTrading<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$35.91

Value

$48.58

PnL

+$12.67

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Envy

Invested

$11,032.71

Value

$8.69

PnL

$-11.0K

Record

53%

1187-1063 (2250)

RLWGCTR<$100

Envy

Invested

$6.6

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

7576-7601 (15177)

Research grade

AvoidEnvy at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Envy

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors GamerLegion 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Envy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.