Counter-Strike: Ducks vs TTG Esports - Map 1 Winner
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (83%) · Ducks at 100¢ · $370 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Ducks
6
Ducks 83%
$370.3
$42.33
67.3¢ → 100¢
+49% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDucks at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Ducksavg 58.9¢ | $128.08 | $165.93 | +$37.85 | 54% 2422-2097 (4519) |
TE testBruno2 | Ducksavg 88.6¢ | $198.98 | $127.6 | +$4.86 | 58% 879-636 (1515) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | Ducksavg 83¢ | $26.37 | $26.21 | -$0.16 | 52% 9163-8552 (17715) |
 poshposh<$100 | Ducksavg 60.4¢ | $30.88 | $25.54 | -$5.33 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Ducksavg 36¢ | $18 | $25 | +$7 | 60% 3370-2270 (5640) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | TTG Esportsavg 4.5¢ | $1.91 | $0.02 | -$1.89 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$128.08
Value
$165.93
PnL
+$37.85
Record
54%
2422-2097 (4519)
Invested
$198.98
Value
$127.6
PnL
+$4.86
Record
58%
879-636 (1515)
Invested
$26.37
Value
$26.21
PnL
-$0.16
Record
52%
9163-8552 (17715)
poshposh<$100Invested
$30.88
Value
$25.54
PnL
-$5.33
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
Invested
$18
Value
$25
PnL
+$7
Record
60%
3370-2270 (5640)
Invested
$1.91
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.89
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.