Counter-Strike: Ducks vs TTG Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #10 Playoffs

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (57%) · Ducks at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1

Ducks>99¢TTG Esports<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$260.94

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 100¢

+59% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ducks100%

TTG Esports0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ducks4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,508

Combined PnL+$322.73

TTG Esports3 traders

Total Value$109.02

Total Shares338

Combined PnL-$61.79

Ducks — 57%TTG Esports — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
daddyradar	Ducksavg 61.6¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$305.87	67% 88-43 (131)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Ducksavg 67.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$3.44	54% 2428-2097 (4525)
SW swiftFoxx	Ducksavg 59.9¢	$521.17	$543.44	+$22.27	70% 53-23 (76)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	TTG Esportsavg 38.7¢	$1.1K	$403.15	-$657.47	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
└ TTG Esports leg	TTG Esportsavg 38.7¢	$1.0K	$315.15	-$701.47
└ Ducks leg	Ducksavg 44¢	$44	$88	+$44
FO fortunekingCTR	TTG Esportsavg 56.2¢	$133.04	$88.74	-$44.3	59% 781-546 (1327)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Ducksavg 66¢	$36.99	$35.03	-$1.96	50% 19237-19616 (38853)
poshposhCTR<$100	TTG Esportsavg 42¢	$22.69	$20.26	-$2.43	59% 10284-7273 (17557)
US User7429CTR<$100	TTG Esportsavg 31.7¢	$15.08	$0.02	-$15.06	55% 8318-6708 (15026)

daddyradar

Ducks

Invested

$1,995.52

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$305.87

Record

67%

88-43 (131)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Ducks

Invested

$1,343.01

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$3.44

Record

54%

2428-2097 (4525)

swiftFoxx

Ducks

Invested

$521.17

Value

$543.44

PnL

+$22.27

Record

70%

53-23 (76)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

TTG Esports

Invested

$1,060.62

Value

$403.15

PnL

-$657.47

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

Both legs:

TTG Esports$1,016.6238.7¢-$701.47

Ducks$4444¢+$44

fortunekingCTR

TTG Esports

Invested

$133.04

Value

$88.74

PnL

-$44.3

Record

59%

781-546 (1327)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Ducks

Invested

$36.99

Value

$35.03

PnL

-$1.96

Record

50%

19237-19616 (38853)

poshposhCTR<$100

TTG Esports

Invested

$22.69

Value

$20.26

PnL

-$2.43

Record

59%

10284-7273 (17557)

User7429CTR<$100

TTG Esports

Invested

$15.08

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$15.06

Record

55%

8318-6708 (15026)

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.