Counter-Strike: Ducks vs Aurora Young Blood - Map 2 Winner
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Young Blood (80%) · Aurora Young Blood at 100¢ · $484 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Aurora Young Blood
5
Aurora Young Blood 80%
1 arb excluded
$484.27
-$56.41
88.4¢ → 100¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAurora Young Blood at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100 | Aurora Young Bloodavg 67.4¢ | $224.47 | $221.55 | -$2.92 | 53% 2373-2082 (4455) |
| └ Aurora Young Blood leg | Aurora Young Bloodavg 67.4¢ | $157.12 | $139.87 | -$17.24 | |
| └ Ducks leg | Ducksavg 33¢ | $67.35 | $81.67 | +$14.32 | |
TE testBruno2 | Aurora Young Bloodavg 91.2¢ | $172.35 | $120.8 | -$2.53 | 58% 854-629 (1483) |
VP Vps1<$100 | Aurora Young Bloodavg 99.9¢ | $67.85 | $67.89 | +$0.03 | 96% 294-13 (307) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | Aurora Young Bloodavg 80¢ | $85 | $53.94 | -$31.06 | 52% 9141-8537 (17678) |
 poshposh<$100 | Aurora Young Bloodavg 73.5¢ | $29.48 | $20.06 | -$9.43 | 59% 9935-6911 (16846) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Ducksavg 14.7¢ | $13.47 | $0.05 | -$13.43 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100Invested
$224.47
Value
$221.55
PnL
-$2.92
Record
53%
2373-2082 (4455)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.35
Value
$120.8
PnL
-$2.53
Record
58%
854-629 (1483)
Invested
$67.85
Value
$67.89
PnL
+$0.03
Record
96%
294-13 (307)
Invested
$85
Value
$53.94
PnL
-$31.06
Record
52%
9141-8537 (17678)
poshposh<$100Invested
$29.48
Value
$20.06
PnL
-$9.43
Record
59%
9935-6911 (16846)
Invested
$13.47
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$13.43
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.