Counter-Strike: Ducks vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #10 Playoffs

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (80%) · Ducks at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 30

Ducks>99¢Aurora Young Blood<1¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$680.43

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ducks100%

Aurora Young Blood0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ducks8 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares7,309

Combined PnL+$856.52

Aurora Young Blood2 traders

Total Value$484.44

Total Shares757

Combined PnL-$176.09

Ducks — 80%Aurora Young Blood — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDucks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrDucks 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Ducksavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 10804-63 (10867)
daddyradar	Ducksavg 49.6¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$585.82	66% 83-43 (126)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Ducksavg 57.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$50.31	53% 2376-2085 (4461)
JohnLKellyJr	Ducksavg 60.6¢	$561.24	$722.77	+$161.53	52% 1231-1126 (2357)
poshposhCTR	Aurora Young Bloodavg 42.6¢	$492.25	$380.4	-$111.85	59% 9948-6921 (16869)
0X 0x4f2ARB<$100	Aurora Young Bloodavg 41.3¢	$353.52	$272.66	-$80.86	52% 9144-8538 (17682)
└ Aurora Young Blood leg	Aurora Young Bloodavg 41.3¢	$260.24	$157.59	-$102.65
└ Ducks leg	Ducksavg 60.8¢	$93.28	$115.06	+$21.79
TE testBruno2	Ducksavg 69.9¢	$1.0K	$171.53	-$51.19	58% 857-630 (1487)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Aurora Young Bloodavg 35.2¢	$563.24	$136.63	-$426.6	38% 3213-5245 (8458)
└ Ducks leg	Ducksavg 38¢	$38.99	$100.17	+$61.19
└ Aurora Young Blood leg	Aurora Young Bloodavg 35.2¢	$524.25	$36.46	-$487.79
US User7429CTR	Aurora Young Bloodavg 54.2¢	$171.2	$104.04	-$64.24	55% 8244-6658 (14902)
SH shiifoo	Ducksavg 76¢	$118.23	$99.94	+$15.69	60% 3326-2230 (5556)
BE berlinskies	Ducksavg 63.9¢	$145.9	$45.88	+$82.21	58% 5831-4282 (10113)
PA pauleta23<$100	Ducksavg 57.2¢	$30	$40.9	+$10.9	67% 23277-11683 (34960)

looppau

Ducks

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

10804-63 (10867)

daddyradar

Ducks

Invested

$1,025.16

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$585.82

Record

66%

83-43 (126)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Ducks

Invested

$1,392.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$50.31

Record

53%

2376-2085 (4461)

JohnLKellyJr

Ducks

Invested

$561.24

Value

$722.77

PnL

+$161.53

Record

52%

1231-1126 (2357)

poshposhCTR

Aurora Young Blood

Invested

$492.25

Value

$380.4

PnL

-$111.85

Record

59%

9948-6921 (16869)

0x4f2ARB<$100

Aurora Young Blood

Invested

$353.52

Value

$272.66

PnL

-$80.86

Record

52%

9144-8538 (17682)

Both legs:

Aurora Young Blood$260.2441.3¢-$102.65

Ducks$93.2860.8¢+$21.79

testBruno2

Ducks

Invested

$1,041.67

Value

$171.53

PnL

-$51.19

Record

58%

857-630 (1487)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Aurora Young Blood

Invested

$563.24

Value

$136.63

PnL

-$426.6

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

Both legs:

Ducks$38.9938¢+$61.19

Aurora Young Blood$524.2535.2¢-$487.79

User7429CTR

Aurora Young Blood

Invested

$171.2

Value

$104.04

PnL

-$64.24

Record

55%

8244-6658 (14902)

shiifoo

Ducks

Invested

$118.23

Value

$99.94

PnL

+$15.69

Record

60%

3326-2230 (5556)

berlinskies

Ducks

Invested

$145.9

Value

$45.88

PnL

+$82.21

Record

58%

5831-4282 (10113)

pauleta23<$100

Ducks

Invested

$30

Value

$40.9

PnL

+$10.9

Record

67%

23277-11683 (34960)

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDucks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrDucks 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.