Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Donstu Esports (57%) · Donstu Esports at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Donstu Esports>99¢Misa Esports<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Donstu Esports

Consensus Traders

Donstu Esports 57%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$17.5

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDonstu Esports at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Donstu Esports

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Donstu Esports100%

Misa Esports0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Misa Esports3 traders

Total Value$889.24

Total Shares1,078

Combined PnL-$18.02

Donstu Esports4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,206

Combined PnL+$35.52

Misa Esports — 43%Donstu Esports — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Donstu Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMisa Esports 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpDonstu Esports 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrDonstu Esports 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Donstu Esports 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	Misa Esportsavg 57¢	$809.55	$879.16	+$69.61	54% 2460-2113 (4573)
VP Vps1	Donstu Esportsavg 99.9¢	$761.27	$761.65	+$0.38	96% 322-15 (337)
TE testBruno2	Donstu Esportsavg 51.1¢	$210.95	$227.63	+$16.68	58% 899-648 (1547)
46 467j6yj	Donstu Esportsavg 99¢	$194.04	$195.9	+$1.86	97% 3389-119 (3508)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Donstu Esportsavg 17¢	$3.4	$19.99	+$16.59	52% 804-728 (1532)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Misa Esportsavg 9.7¢	$6.95	$10.01	+$3.06	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	Misa Esportsavg 65¢	$90.76	$0.07	-$90.69	52% 9186-8564 (17750)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

Misa Esports

Invested

$809.55

Value

$879.16

PnL

+$69.61

Record

54%

2460-2113 (4573)

Vps1

Donstu Esports

Invested

$761.27

Value

$761.65

PnL

+$0.38

Record

96%

322-15 (337)

testBruno2

Donstu Esports

Invested

$210.95

Value

$227.63

PnL

+$16.68

Record

58%

899-648 (1547)

467j6yj

Donstu Esports

Invested

$194.04

Value

$195.9

PnL

+$1.86

Record

97%

3389-119 (3508)

seeeeeeb<$100

Donstu Esports

Invested

$3.4

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$16.59

Record

52%

804-728 (1532)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Misa Esports

Invested

$6.95

Value

$10.01

PnL

+$3.06

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

0x4f2CTR<$100

Misa Esports

Invested

$90.76

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$90.69

Record

52%

9186-8564 (17750)

Research grade

NeutralDonstu Esports at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Donstu Esports

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Donstu Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMisa Esports 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpDonstu Esports 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrDonstu Esports 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Donstu Esports 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Donstu Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.