Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Donstu Esports (80%) · Donstu Esports at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Donstu Esports
5
Donstu Esports 80%
$1.9K
-$30.71
83.4¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDonstu Esports at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Donstu Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
46 467j6yj | Donstu Esportsavg 98.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$13.48 | 97% 3387-119 (3506) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Donstu Esportsavg 60.4¢ | $673.2 | $686.8 | +$13.6 | 54% 2455-2112 (4567) |
 poshposhCTR | Misa Esportsavg 55.9¢ | $104.2 | $59.81 | -$44.38 | 58% 10670-7658 (18328) |
TE testBruno2 | Donstu Esportsavg 66.4¢ | $114.54 | $45.93 | -$2.9 | 58% 896-647 (1543) |
SH shiifoo | Donstu Esportsavg 51¢ | $104.69 | $6.67 | -$10.5 | 59% 3430-2345 (5775) |
Invested
$1,074.98
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$13.48
Record
97%
3387-119 (3506)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$673.2
Value
$686.8
PnL
+$13.6
Record
54%
2455-2112 (4567)
poshposhCTRInvested
$104.2
Value
$59.81
PnL
-$44.38
Record
58%
10670-7658 (18328)
Invested
$114.54
Value
$45.93
PnL
-$2.9
Record
58%
896-647 (1543)
Invested
$104.69
Value
$6.67
PnL
-$10.5
Record
59%
3430-2345 (5775)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.