Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #13 Group C
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Donstu Esports (83%) · Donstu Esports at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Donstu Esports
6
Donstu Esports 83%
$3.3K
$92.22
85.9¢ → 100¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDonstu Esports at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Donstu Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VP Vps1 | Donstu Esportsavg 99.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0.64 | 96% 322-15 (337) |
46 467j6yj | Donstu Esportsavg 97.7¢ | $972.43 | $995 | +$22.57 | 97% 3389-119 (3508) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Donstu Esportsavg 55.9¢ | $735.47 | $723.1 | -$12.37 | 54% 2460-2113 (4573) |
0X 0x4f2 | Donstu Esportsavg 57.9¢ | $126 | $217.25 | +$91.26 | 52% 9186-8564 (17750) |
 poshposh<$100 | Donstu Esportsavg 50.8¢ | $39.89 | $55.67 | +$15.78 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Misa Esportsavg 43.7¢ | $48.49 | $22.82 | -$25.66 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
Invested
$1,277.59
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0.64
Record
96%
322-15 (337)
Invested
$972.43
Value
$995
PnL
+$22.57
Record
97%
3389-119 (3508)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$735.47
Value
$723.1
PnL
-$12.37
Record
54%
2460-2113 (4573)
Invested
$126
Value
$217.25
PnL
+$91.26
Record
52%
9186-8564 (17750)
poshposh<$100Invested
$39.89
Value
$55.67
PnL
+$15.78
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$48.49
Value
$22.82
PnL
-$25.66
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.