Counter-Strike: DNK vs SINQU (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold DNK (67%) · DNK at 93¢ · $311 held · ends Nov 1
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Neutral
DNK
3
DNK 67%
$310.7
-$7.17
69.4¢ → 93¢
+34% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDNK at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 daddyradar | DNKavg 71¢ | $118.05 | $154.62 | +$36.58 | 67% 90-45 (135) |
 poshposh | DNKavg 67.4¢ | $147.08 | $144.81 | -$2.27 | 58% 10670-7658 (18328) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | SINQUavg 25.8¢ | $41.56 | $11.27 | -$41.48 | 55% 8413-6766 (15179) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.