Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold DNK, while the market favors Dark Moon (61%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: DNK vs Dark Moon (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold DNK (33%) · DNK at 39¢ · $939 held · ends Oct 28

DNK39¢Dark Moon61¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DNK

Consensus Traders

DNK 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$938.5

Combined PnL

-$227.21

Research grade

NeutralDNK at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DNK

1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Dark Moon 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

DNK39%

Dark Moon61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DNK1 trader

Total Value$300

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL-$320

Dark Moon2 traders

Total Value$155.75

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$92.79

DNK — 33%Dark Moon — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposhARB<$100	DNKavg 53.6¢	$485.53	$482.76	-$2.77	60% 9362-6344 (15706)
└ DNK leg	DNKavg 53.6¢	$335.16	$243.74	-$91.43
└ Dark Moon leg	Dark Moonavg 38.4¢	$150.36	$239.02	+$88.66
daddyradarCTR	DNKavg 55¢	$549.99	$300	-$320	66% 71-37 (108)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Dark Moonavg 48.2¢	$51.71	$87.23	+$35.52	50% 661-651 (1312)
PA pauleta23<$100	Dark Moonavg 49¢	$11.25	$68.52	+$57.27	67% 23105-11508 (34613)

poshposhARB<$100

DNK

Invested

$485.53

Value

$482.76

PnL

-$2.77

Record

60%

9362-6344 (15706)

Both legs:

DNK$335.1653.6¢-$91.43

Dark Moon$150.3638.4¢+$88.66

daddyradarCTR

DNK

Invested

$549.99

Value

$300

PnL

-$320

Record

66%

71-37 (108)

seeeeeeb<$100

Dark Moon

Invested

$51.71

Value

$87.23

PnL

+$35.52

Record

50%

661-651 (1312)

pauleta23<$100

Dark Moon

Invested

$11.25

Value

$68.52

PnL

+$57.27

Record

67%

23105-11508 (34613)

Research grade

NeutralDNK at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

DNK

1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Dark Moon 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DNK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.