Counter-Strike: Dark Moon vs Saint Sinners - Map 2 Winner
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Sinners (40%) · Saint Sinners at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Saint Sinners
5
Saint Sinners 40%
$6.3K
$-1.2K
65.2¢ → 51.5¢
-21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaint Sinners at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Saint Sinners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ARTEM-DZYUBA | Saint Sinnersavg 63.6¢ | $5.6K | $4.5K | $-1.1K | 85% 5393-940 (6333) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR | Dark Moonavg 44.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$117.45 | 75% 106-36 (142) |
SH shiifoo | Saint Sinnersavg 93.6¢ | $500 | $257.5 | -$210.5 | 60% 3373-2274 (5647) |
GG GGLPLCTR<$100 | Dark Moonavg 48¢ | $31.16 | $31.47 | +$0.31 | 50% 682-675 (1357) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Dark Moonavg 44¢ | $10 | $11.02 | +$1.02 | 67% 23363-11755 (35118) |
ARTEM-DZYUBAInvested
$5,579.97
Value
$4.5K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
85%
5393-940 (6333)
Invested
$1,412.85
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$117.45
Record
75%
106-36 (142)
Invested
$500
Value
$257.5
PnL
-$210.5
Record
60%
3373-2274 (5647)
Invested
$31.16
Value
$31.47
PnL
+$0.31
Record
50%
682-675 (1357)
Invested
$10
Value
$11.02
PnL
+$1.02
Record
67%
23363-11755 (35118)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.