Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Turma do Pagode, while the market favors DENDELE CS (59%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Map Handicap: DEN (-1.5) vs Turma do Pagode (+1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Turma do Pagode (80%) · Turma do Pagode at 41¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Turma do Pagode
5
Turma do Pagode 80%
$16.5K
$2.6K
39.4¢ → 41¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTurma do Pagode at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors DENDELE CS 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | Turma do Pagodeavg 39¢ | $7.2K | $9.0K | +$1.8K | 53% 752-664 (1416) |
VI vibing123CTR | Turma do Pagodeavg 40¢ | $4.9K | $5.9K | +$1.0K | 52% 1563-1445 (3008) |
 JohnLKellyJr | DENDELE CSavg 60¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | -$255 | 52% 1228-1123 (2351) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Turma do Pagodeavg 34.9¢ | $26.16 | $36.35 | +$10.18 | 47% 2470-2777 (5247) |
AS astapzippoCTR<$100 | Turma do Pagodeavg 47¢ | $13.16 | $13.58 | +$0.42 | 56% 2143-1698 (3841) |
Invested
$7,241.88
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
53%
752-664 (1416)
Invested
$4,877.08
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
52%
1563-1445 (3008)
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$1,800
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$255
Record
52%
1228-1123 (2351)
Invested
$26.16
Value
$36.35
PnL
+$10.18
Record
47%
2470-2777 (5247)
Invested
$13.16
Value
$13.58
PnL
+$0.42
Record
56%
2143-1698 (3841)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.