Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Turma do Pagode, while the market favors DENDELE CS (85%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: DENDELE CS vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Group A

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Turma do Pagode (80%) · Turma do Pagode at 16¢ · $348 held · ends Oct 31

DENDELE CS85¢Turma do Pagode15¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Turma do Pagode

Consensus Traders

Turma do Pagode 80%

Total Value

$348.23

Combined PnL

-$27.08

Smart Money Entry

15.3¢ → 15.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTurma do Pagode at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Turma do Pagode

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors DENDELE CS 85%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

DENDELE CS85%

Turma do Pagode16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Turma do Pagode4 traders

Total Value$339.32

Total Shares2,424

Combined PnL-$27.39

DENDELE CS1 trader

Total Value$8.91

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.31

Turma do Pagode — 80%DENDELE CS — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 15.5¢	$312.04	$282.2	-$29.84	47% 2468-2772 (5240)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 15¢	$24.47	$27.41	+$2.94	52% 3998-3640 (7638)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 14.4¢	$19.61	$19.1	-$0.51	50% 24906-24594 (49500)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 14¢	$10.58	$10.61	+$0.03	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
38 38791873984189<$100	DENDELE CSavg 83¢	$8.6	$8.91	+$0.31	46% 7951-9381 (17332)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$312.04

Value

$282.2

PnL

-$29.84

Record

47%

2468-2772 (5240)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$24.47

Value

$27.41

PnL

+$2.94

Record

52%

3998-3640 (7638)

sentrioCTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$19.61

Value

$19.1

PnL

-$0.51

Record

50%

24906-24594 (49500)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$10.58

Value

$10.61

PnL

+$0.03

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

38791873984189<$100

DENDELE CS

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.91

PnL

+$0.31

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

Research grade

AvoidTurma do Pagode at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Turma do Pagode

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors DENDELE CS 85%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Turma do Pagode wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.