
Counter-Strike: DENDELE CS vs Imperial - Map 1 Winner
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold DENDELE CS (55%) · DENDELE CS at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
DENDELE CS
11
DENDELE CS 55%
$9.5K
$322.83
59.6¢ → 100¢
+68% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralDENDELE CS at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | DENDELE CSavg 58.6¢ | $2.8K | $3.0K | +$166.64 | 52% 13935-12713 (26648) |
![]() 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | DENDELE CSavg 62.1¢ | $2.7K | $3.0K | +$259.75 | 54% 2460-2113 (4573) |
DE delacsynzy1 | DENDELE CSavg 56¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$18.16 | 51% 467-443 (910) |
![]() cs2.quantCTR | Imperialavg 65.5¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | +$0.74 | 55% 86-70 (156) |
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR | Imperialavg 45¢ | $471.11 | $471.54 | +$0.44 | 54% 2484-2134 (4618) |
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR | Imperialavg 27.4¢ | $463.25 | $464.67 | +$1.43 | 51% 351-343 (694) |
PI PIPIZINCTR | Imperialavg 45¢ | $300 | $300 | +$0 | 51% 428-405 (833) |
0X 0x4f2 | DENDELE CSavg 69.3¢ | $149.99 | $129.81 | -$20.19 | 52% 9186-8564 (17750) |
![]() poshposh<$100 | DENDELE CSavg 66.4¢ | $44.86 | $67.53 | +$22.67 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Imperialavg 32.5¢ | $183.04 | $50.23 | -$132.81 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | DENDELE CSavg 63.6¢ | $29.5 | $35.5 | +$6 | 59% 3437-2346 (5783) |
Invested
$2,835.27
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$166.64
Record
52%
13935-12713 (26648)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$2,701.79
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$259.75
Record
54%
2460-2113 (4573)
Invested
$1,005.83
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$18.16
Record
51%
467-443 (910)
cs2.quantCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$0.74
Record
55%
86-70 (156)
Invested
$471.11
Value
$471.54
PnL
+$0.44
Record
54%
2484-2134 (4618)
Invested
$463.25
Value
$464.67
PnL
+$1.43
Record
51%
351-343 (694)
Invested
$300
Value
$300
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
428-405 (833)
Invested
$149.99
Value
$129.81
PnL
-$20.19
Record
52%
9186-8564 (17750)
poshposh<$100Invested
$44.86
Value
$67.53
PnL
+$22.67
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$183.04
Value
$50.23
PnL
-$132.81
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$35.5
PnL
+$6
Record
59%
3437-2346 (5783)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
DENDELE CS — $3.0K

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
DENDELE CS — $3.0K
delacsynzy1
DENDELE CS — $1.0K

cs2.quant
CTRImperial — $1.0K
THEHIGHLIFE
CTRImperial — $471.54
0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237
CTRImperial — $464.67
PIPIZIN
CTRImperial — $300
0x4f2
DENDELE CS — $129.81

poshposh
DENDELE CS — $67.53
topdogbigboi
CTRImperial — $50.23