Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Imperial, while the market favors DENDELE CS (59%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: DENDELE CS vs Imperial (BO5) - Gamers Club Masters Playoffs
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Imperial (80%) · Imperial at 42¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Imperial
5
Imperial 80%
$4.8K
-$97.51
42.8¢ → 41.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralImperial at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors DENDELE CS 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Imperial. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA Rayaya | DENDELE CSavg 58¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$15 | 60% 1179-782 (1961) |
 SatanishippieCTR | Imperialavg 44.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$124.7 | 48% 322-346 (668) |
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | Imperialavg 41¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$14.81 | 53% 760-672 (1432) |
MA manoamanoCTR | Imperialavg 42.4¢ | $145.83 | $142.83 | -$3 | 51% 506-478 (984) |
HU humbleboyCTR<$100 | Imperialavg 40¢ | $6.25 | $6.41 | +$0.39 | 55% 515-428 (943) |
Invested
$1,740
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$15
Record
60%
1179-782 (1961)
SatanishippieCTRInvested
$1,800
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$124.7
Record
48%
322-346 (668)
Invested
$1,214.3
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$14.81
Record
53%
760-672 (1432)
Invested
$145.83
Value
$142.83
PnL
-$3
Record
51%
506-478 (984)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$6.41
PnL
+$0.39
Record
55%
515-428 (943)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.