Counter-Strike: Copenhagen Wolves vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Copenhagen Wolves (100%) · Copenhagen Wolves at 100¢ · $654 held · ends Oct 29
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Neutral
Copenhagen Wolves
5
Copenhagen Wolves 100%
$653.83
$43.68
88.7¢ → 100¢
+13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralCopenhagen Wolves at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Copenhagen Wolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
46 467j6yj | Copenhagen Wolvesavg 98.5¢ | $397.91 | $403.6 | +$5.69 | 97% 3248-113 (3361) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Copenhagen Wolvesavg 70.3¢ | $150.05 | $170.84 | +$20.79 | 53% 2322-2056 (4378) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | Copenhagen Wolvesavg 62.3¢ | $26.7 | $42.8 | +$16.09 | 52% 9109-8514 (17623) |
VP Vps1<$100 | Copenhagen Wolvesavg 99.9¢ | $27.47 | $27.49 | +$0.01 | 96% 269-12 (281) |
TE testBruno2<$100 | Copenhagen Wolvesavg 88¢ | $29.8 | $9.1 | +$1.09 | 58% 827-604 (1431) |
Invested
$397.91
Value
$403.6
PnL
+$5.69
Record
97%
3248-113 (3361)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$150.05
Value
$170.84
PnL
+$20.79
Record
53%
2322-2056 (4378)
Invested
$26.7
Value
$42.8
PnL
+$16.09
Record
52%
9109-8514 (17623)
Invested
$27.47
Value
$27.49
PnL
+$0.01
Record
96%
269-12 (281)
Invested
$29.8
Value
$9.1
PnL
+$1.09
Record
58%
827-604 (1431)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.