Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Buster, while the market favors Team NS (100%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Team Buster vs Team NS (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group A

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Team Buster (50%) · Team Buster at 0.1¢ · $707 held · ends Nov 13

Team Buster<1¢Team NS>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Buster

Consensus Traders

Team Buster 50%

Total Value

$706.76

Combined PnL

-$281.98

Smart Money Entry

23.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Buster at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Buster

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Team NS 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Buster0%

Team NS100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Buster5 traders

Total Value$280.91

Total Shares2,376

Combined PnL-$398.88

Team NS5 traders

Total Value$425.85

Total Shares426

Combined PnL+$116.9

Team Buster — 50%Team NS — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Team Buster. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam NS 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Team NS 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Team Busteravg 50¢	$262.5	$264.86	+$2.36	53% 634-568 (1202)
poshposh	Team NSavg 66.1¢	$191.72	$242.24	+$50.52	47% 786-902 (1688)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Team NSavg 65.9¢	$79.31	$112.77	+$33.47	36% 432-771 (1203)
LR lryyy<$100	Team NSavg 72.3¢	$38.89	$35.41	-$3.49	45% 595-734 (1329)
dips.<$100	Team NSavg 54¢	$13.5	$24.99	+$11.49	46% 741-865 (1606)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Team Busteravg 26.7¢	$384.16	$15.7	-$368.46	37% 659-1143 (1802)
GA Gaditima	Team NSavg 72¢	$106.52	$10.44	+$24.92	47% 226-251 (477)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Team Busteravg 6¢	$37.61	$0.31	-$37.3	46% 219-260 (479)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Team Busteravg 20.5¢	$98.97	$0.03	+$4.78	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Team Busteravg 1¢	$0.28	$0.01	-$0.27	62% 1394-871 (2265)

NotJumpCTR

Team Buster

Invested

$262.5

Value

$264.86

PnL

+$2.36

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

poshposh

Team NS

Invested

$191.72

Value

$242.24

PnL

+$50.52

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Team NS

Invested

$79.31

Value

$112.77

PnL

+$33.47

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

lryyy<$100

Team NS

Invested

$38.89

Value

$35.41

PnL

-$3.49

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

dips.<$100

Team NS

Invested

$13.5

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$11.49

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

topdogbigboiCTR

Team Buster

Invested

$384.16

Value

$15.7

PnL

-$368.46

Record

37%

659-1143 (1802)

Gaditima

Team NS

Invested

$106.52

Value

$10.44

PnL

+$24.92

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Team Buster

Invested

$37.61

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$37.3

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Team Buster

Invested

$98.97

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$4.78

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

shiifooCTR<$100

Team Buster

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.27

Record

62%

1394-871 (2265)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Buster at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Buster

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Team NS 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Team Buster. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam NS 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Team NS 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Buster wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.