Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Nexus (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Butterfly (63%) · Butterfly at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Butterfly>99¢Nexus<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Butterfly

Consensus Traders

Butterfly 63%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$242.73

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 100¢

+85% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralButterfly at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Butterfly

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Butterfly100%

Nexus0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Butterfly5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,888

Combined PnL+$381.6

Nexus3 traders

Total Value$61.76

Total Shares363

Combined PnL-$138.87

Butterfly — 63%Nexus — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cs2.quant	Butterflyavg 51.3¢	$614.98	$994.79	+$379.81	57% 118-89 (207)
31 319113331313111	Butterflyavg 87.7¢	$2.4K	$261.06	-$176.79	58% 521-379 (900)
LI Limousin	Butterflyavg 40.2¢	$88.34	$182.45	+$94.11	46% 2902-3417 (6319)
GL glennyorkshire	Butterflyavg 45¢	$97.74	$180.43	+$82.69	47% 257-291 (548)
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52bCTR	Nexusavg 52.5¢	$103.74	$33.59	-$70.14	— 10-2 (12)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Nexusavg 55.2¢	$47.75	$14.69	-$33.06	48% 8402-8936 (17338)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Nexusavg 62¢	$49.14	$13.47	-$35.67	47% 1785-2005 (3790)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Butterflyavg 47.2¢	$2.36	$4.15	+$1.79	52% 1662-1504 (3166)

cs2.quant

Butterfly

Invested

$614.98

Value

$994.79

PnL

+$379.81

Record

57%

118-89 (207)

319113331313111

Butterfly

Invested

$2,415.67

Value

$261.06

PnL

-$176.79

Record

58%

521-379 (900)

Limousin

Butterfly

Invested

$88.34

Value

$182.45

PnL

+$94.11

Record

46%

2902-3417 (6319)

glennyorkshire

Butterfly

Invested

$97.74

Value

$180.43

PnL

+$82.69

Record

47%

257-291 (548)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52bCTR

Nexus

Invested

$103.74

Value

$33.59

PnL

-$70.14

Record

—

10-2 (12)

OddstormCTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$47.75

Value

$14.69

PnL

-$33.06

Record

48%

8402-8936 (17338)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$49.14

Value

$13.47

PnL

-$35.67

Record

47%

1785-2005 (3790)

lonmi2511<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$2.36

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$1.79

Record

52%

1662-1504 (3166)

Research grade

NeutralButterfly at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Butterfly

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Butterfly wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.