Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Butterfly (40%) · Butterfly at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Butterfly
5
Butterfly 40%
$1.7K
$30.33
72.3¢ → 88.5¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralButterfly at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Butterfly. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | Butterflyavg 71.8¢ | $884.88 | $875.28 | -$9.6 | 54% 121-105 (226) |
31 319113331313111 | Butterflyavg 73¢ | $706.56 | $764.56 | +$58 | 39% 32-51 (83) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Honvédavg 28¢ | $68.07 | $53.49 | -$14.59 | 52% 5324-4829 (10153) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Honvédavg 28.3¢ | $18.18 | $11.1 | -$3.36 | 48% 414-448 (862) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Honvédavg 27¢ | $0.63 | $0.52 | -$0.12 | 47% 66-75 (141) |
Invested
$884.88
Value
$875.28
PnL
-$9.6
Record
54%
121-105 (226)
Invested
$706.56
Value
$764.56
PnL
+$58
Record
39%
32-51 (83)
Invested
$68.07
Value
$53.49
PnL
-$14.59
Record
52%
5324-4829 (10153)
Invested
$18.18
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$3.36
Record
48%
414-448 (862)
Invested
$0.63
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$0.12
Record
47%
66-75 (141)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.