Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs FORZE Reload - Map 2 Winner
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (60%) · FORZE Reload at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
FORZE Reload
5
FORZE Reload 60%
$2.0K
-$99.88
96.2¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFORZE Reload at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VP Vps1 | FORZE Reloadavg 99.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0.55 | 96% 269-12 (281) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR | Butterflyavg 54.6¢ | $568.88 | $558.33 | -$10.55 | 53% 2322-2056 (4378) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR | Butterflyavg 85¢ | $252.49 | $148.14 | -$104.35 | 52% 13642-12471 (26113) |
TE testBruno2 | FORZE Reloadavg 95.3¢ | $855.33 | $133.5 | -$18.36 | 58% 827-604 (1431) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | FORZE Reloadavg 28.2¢ | $29.51 | $62.33 | +$32.82 | 52% 9109-8514 (17623) |
Invested
$1,098.9
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0.55
Record
96%
269-12 (281)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTRInvested
$568.88
Value
$558.33
PnL
-$10.55
Record
53%
2322-2056 (4378)
Invested
$252.49
Value
$148.14
PnL
-$104.35
Record
52%
13642-12471 (26113)
Invested
$855.33
Value
$133.5
PnL
-$18.36
Record
58%
827-604 (1431)
Invested
$29.51
Value
$62.33
PnL
+$32.82
Record
52%
9109-8514 (17623)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.