Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Butterfly, while the market favors FORZE Reload (58%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs FORZE Reload (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Playoffs

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Butterfly (80%) · Butterfly at 42¢ · $769 held · ends Oct 29

Butterfly42¢FORZE Reload58¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Butterfly

Consensus Traders

Butterfly 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$769.07

Combined PnL

-$35.78

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 42.3¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralButterfly at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Butterfly

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors FORZE Reload 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Butterfly42%

FORZE Reload58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Butterfly4 traders

Total Value$128.12

Total Shares296

Combined PnL-$34.51

FORZE Reload1 trader

Total Value$63.17

Total Shares85

Combined PnL-$1.28

Butterfly — 80%FORZE Reload — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Butterflyavg 46.3¢	$259.6	$297.66	+$38.07	53% 2322-2056 (4378)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 37.9¢	$99.36	$151.41	+$52.05
└ Butterfly leg	Butterflyavg 46.3¢	$160.24	$146.25	-$13.98
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Butterflyavg 43.6¢	$210.6	$280.12	+$69.52	52% 13642-12471 (26113)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 32.5¢	$94.13	$167.21	+$73.08
└ Butterfly leg	Butterflyavg 43.6¢	$116.47	$112.91	-$3.56
TE testBruno2CTR	Butterflyavg 42.7¢	$733.85	$108.58	-$29.39	58% 827-604 (1431)
poshposh<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 72.6¢	$64.44	$63.17	-$1.28	59% 9671-6655 (16326)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Butterflyavg 73¢	$21.9	$15	-$6.9	49% 18813-19212 (38025)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	Butterflyavg 25¢	$1.67	$3.33	+$1.67	52% 9109-8514 (17623)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Butterflyavg 45¢	$1.08	$1.2	+$0.12	52% 3684-3346 (7030)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$259.6

Value

$297.66

PnL

+$38.07

Record

53%

2322-2056 (4378)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$99.3637.9¢+$52.05

Butterfly$160.2446.3¢-$13.98

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$210.6

Value

$280.12

PnL

+$69.52

Record

52%

13642-12471 (26113)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$94.1332.5¢+$73.08

Butterfly$116.4743.6¢-$3.56

testBruno2CTR

Butterfly

Invested

$733.85

Value

$108.58

PnL

-$29.39

Record

58%

827-604 (1431)

poshposh<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$64.44

Value

$63.17

PnL

-$1.28

Record

59%

9671-6655 (16326)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$21.9

Value

$15

PnL

-$6.9

Record

49%

18813-19212 (38025)

0x4f2CTR<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$1.67

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$1.67

Record

52%

9109-8514 (17623)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

3684-3346 (7030)

Research grade

NeutralButterfly at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Butterfly

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors FORZE Reload 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Butterfly wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.5%

42.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$124.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

224.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.