Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs BARCA - Map 2 Winner

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold BESTIA (50%) · BESTIA at 50¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 2

BESTIA50¢BARCA50¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BESTIA

Consensus Traders

BESTIA 50%

Total Value

$13.4K

Combined PnL

$708.93

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 50¢

-39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBESTIA at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BESTIA

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BESTIA50%

BARCA50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BESTIA4 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares10,876

Combined PnL+$193.82

BARCA4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares7,748

Combined PnL+$515.11

BESTIA — 50%BARCA — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
II iii252	BESTIAavg 72.6¢	$8.0K	$4.0K	+$874.85	57% 1143-875 (2018)
AA aaaa298	BESTIAavg 80.8¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$650.84	59% 792-554 (1346)
LO looppau	BESTIAavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 11171-71 (11242)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	BARCAavg 23.7¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$255.64	51% 351-343 (694)
TO TommyLeePeeca	BESTIAavg 76.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$31.44	53% 1107-975 (2082)
VeryLucky888	BARCAavg 33.5¢	$502.5	$750	+$247.5	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	BARCAavg 26¢	$56.6	$73.98	+$17.37	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
CC ccllar<$100	BARCAavg 26¢	$35.1	$29.7	-$5.4	47% 461-527 (988)

iii252

BESTIA

Invested

$7,963.03

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$874.85

Record

57%

1143-875 (2018)

aaaa298

BESTIA

Invested

$4,008.51

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$650.84

Record

59%

792-554 (1346)

looppau

BESTIA

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

11171-71 (11242)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

BARCA

Invested

$1,395.08

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$255.64

Record

51%

351-343 (694)

TommyLeePeeca

BESTIA

Invested

$1,040.78

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$31.44

Record

53%

1107-975 (2082)

VeryLucky888

BARCA

Invested

$502.5

Value

$750

PnL

+$247.5

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

BARCA

Invested

$56.6

Value

$73.98

PnL

+$17.37

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

ccllar<$100

BARCA

Invested

$35.1

Value

$29.7

PnL

-$5.4

Record

47%

461-527 (988)

Research grade

NeutralBESTIA at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

BESTIA

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BESTIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.