Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs BARCA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold BESTIA (38%) · BESTIA at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 2

BESTIA>99¢BARCA<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BESTIA

Consensus Traders

BESTIA 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBESTIA at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BESTIA

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BESTIA100%

BARCA0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BESTIA5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,549

Combined PnL$-1.3K

BARCA8 traders

Total Value$975.84

Total Shares3,075

Combined PnL-$2.94

BESTIA — 38%BARCA — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	BARCAavg 56.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$23	53% 1107-975 (2082)
└ BESTIA leg	BESTIAavg 44.8¢	$691.75	$810.32	+$118.57
└ BARCA leg	BARCAavg 56.2¢	$915.67	$774.11	-$141.57
AA aaaa298	BESTIAavg 88.3¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$690	59% 792-554 (1346)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	BARCAavg 32.9¢	$645.26	$656.44	+$11.17	53% 761-672 (1433)
II iii252	BESTIAavg 77.6¢	$1.4K	$602.19	-$837.84	57% 1143-875 (2018)
OM omnibus-076daa	BESTIAavg 56.7¢	$347.67	$573.47	+$225.8	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	BARCAavg 29¢	$135.02	$137.35	+$2.33	51% 351-343 (694)
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239	BESTIAavg 37.8¢	$124.9	$120.45	-$4.45	41% 286-420 (706)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	BARCAavg 30¢	$75	$93.75	+$18.75	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	BARCAavg 34¢	$48.42	$55.54	+$7.12	51% 507-478 (985)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	BARCAavg 34¢	$14.28	$16.38	+$2.1	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	BARCAavg 35¢	$14.63	$16.3	+$1.67	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
MaktMan<$100	BESTIAavg 48¢	$8.69	$8.42	-$0.27	50% 51-50 (101)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BARCAavg 24.9¢	$35.59	$0.07	-$35.52	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
poshposhCTR<$100	BARCAavg 35¢	$10.58	$0.02	-$10.57	58% 10691-7671 (18362)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

BARCA

Invested

$1,607.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$23

Record

53%

1107-975 (2082)

Both legs:

BESTIA$691.7544.8¢+$118.57

BARCA$915.6756.2¢-$141.57

aaaa298

BESTIA

Invested

$1,726.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$690

Record

59%

792-554 (1346)

WiretransferxyzCTR

BARCA

Invested

$645.26

Value

$656.44

PnL

+$11.17

Record

53%

761-672 (1433)

iii252

BESTIA

Invested

$1,442.39

Value

$602.19

PnL

-$837.84

Record

57%

1143-875 (2018)

omnibus-076daa

BESTIA

Invested

$347.67

Value

$573.47

PnL

+$225.8

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

BARCA

Invested

$135.02

Value

$137.35

PnL

+$2.33

Record

51%

351-343 (694)

0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239

BESTIA

Invested

$124.9

Value

$120.45

PnL

-$4.45

Record

41%

286-420 (706)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

BARCA

Invested

$75

Value

$93.75

PnL

+$18.75

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

manoamanoCTR<$100

BARCA

Invested

$48.42

Value

$55.54

PnL

+$7.12

Record

51%

507-478 (985)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

BARCA

Invested

$14.28

Value

$16.38

PnL

+$2.1

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

BARCA

Invested

$14.63

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$1.67

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

MaktMan<$100

BESTIA

Invested

$8.69

Value

$8.42

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

51-50 (101)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BARCA

Invested

$35.59

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$35.52

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

poshposhCTR<$100

BARCA

Invested

$10.58

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$10.57

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

Research grade

NeutralBESTIA at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

BESTIA

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BESTIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.