Counter-Strike: Brute vs Nexus (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Brute (23%) · Brute at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 3

Brute>99¢Nexus<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Brute

Consensus Traders

Brute 23%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrute at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Brute

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Brute100%

Nexus0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Brute3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,542

Combined PnL-$10

Nexus10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,565

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Brute — 23%Nexus — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Bruteavg 99.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$1.15	99% 11845-75 (11920)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Nexusavg 69.3¢	$697.7	$399.41	-$298.29	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
poshposhCTR	Nexusavg 40.8¢	$539.72	$290.21	-$249.51	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Nexusavg 33.1¢	$89.6	$277.68	+$188.08	59% 31360-22035 (53395)
CI cigarettes	Bruteavg 58.4¢	$421.58	$212.25	-$9.33	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Nexusavg 32.3¢	$422.48	$178.21	-$244.26	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
alpheclabs2CTR	Nexusavg 69.8¢	$358.89	$158.63	-$200.27	47% 1103-1248 (2351)
38 38791873984189CTR	Nexusavg 38.6¢	$421.75	$130.88	-$290.87	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
LR lryyy<$100	Bruteavg 55¢	$22.14	$20.31	-$1.83	47% 9079-10211 (19290)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Nexusavg 31.8¢	$27.88	$0.04	-$27.84	51% 11633-11054 (22687)
KA KaczkaCTR	Nexusavg 56.4¢	$920.67	$0.02	-$748.22	51% 446-422 (868)
US User7429CTR<$100	Nexusavg 91.3¢	$14.79	$0.01	-$14.78	55% 8674-6972 (15646)
0X 0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100	Nexusavg 71¢	$8.26	$0.01	-$8.26	15% 1116-6362 (7478)

looppau

Brute

Invested

$2,305.34

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.15

Record

99%

11845-75 (11920)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Nexus

Invested

$697.7

Value

$399.41

PnL

-$298.29

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

poshposhCTR

Nexus

Invested

$539.72

Value

$290.21

PnL

-$249.51

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Nexus

Invested

$89.6

Value

$277.68

PnL

+$188.08

Record

59%

31360-22035 (53395)

cigarettes

Brute

Invested

$421.58

Value

$212.25

PnL

-$9.33

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

topdogbigboiCTR

Nexus

Invested

$422.48

Value

$178.21

PnL

-$244.26

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

alpheclabs2CTR

Nexus

Invested

$358.89

Value

$158.63

PnL

-$200.27

Record

47%

1103-1248 (2351)

38791873984189CTR

Nexus

Invested

$421.75

Value

$130.88

PnL

-$290.87

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

lryyy<$100

Brute

Invested

$22.14

Value

$20.31

PnL

-$1.83

Record

47%

9079-10211 (19290)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$27.88

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$27.84

Record

51%

11633-11054 (22687)

KaczkaCTR

Nexus

Invested

$920.67

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$748.22

Record

51%

446-422 (868)

User7429CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$14.79

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$14.78

Record

55%

8674-6972 (15646)

0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$8.26

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$8.26

Record

15%

1116-6362 (7478)

Research grade

NeutralBrute at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Brute

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Brute wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.